Friday, August 10, 2007

6 Is Not Enough

The Mets lost yesterday despite scoring 6 runs. How often does that happen?

Since 1962, the Mets have a .739 winning percentage (424 wins and 150 losses) in games in which they score exactly 6 runs. That also happens to be exactly the average winning percentage overall for NL teams, since 1962, when they score exactly 6 runs. So the Mets have been exactly average in this regard. As one might expect, the NL team with the lowest winning percentage since 1962 in its 6 run games is Colorado (.664 winning percentage), where over the years scoring large numbers of runs has been less of an assurance of a win than anywhere else. Conversely, Dodger Stadium has historically been a particularly friendly park, and sure enough, the Dodgers have a better record ince 1962 (.785) than any other NL team when scoring 6 runs. The AL's overall winning percentage since 1962 for teams with 6 runs has been bit less than in the NL (.717 instead of .739), again as would be expected given the additional offense (and thus the reduced win value of a six run game) the DH has historically produced in the AL.

I used the Situational Records tool at to get this data:

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