Monday, November 12, 2007

Rookie Bats and Gloves

ROY awards coming this afternoon. I have no idea who will win in the NL, but who most deserves it?

Win Shares:
Tulowitzki 25
Braun 22
Pence 20

WARP3 (Baseball-Prospectus's overall value stat):
Tulowitzki 10.8
Pence 7.5
Braun 4.8

WARP is much tougher on pure-offense guys than Win Shares -- like Braun, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder also come in much lower ranked in WARP than in Win Shares.

2 comments:

Scaevola said...

That's a flaw of BP's defensive statistics, if you ask me. Did you know that Carlos Delgado had practically the same WARP3 in 2007 as in 2006? That's because he had a hugely negative FRAR last year, and a hugely positive FRAR this year. It don't make no damn sense.

birtelcom said...

Delgado's 2006-2007 WARP numbers do looked warped indeed. Win Shares shows improvement in Delgado's fielding from 2006 to 2007 too, but only a couple of runs worth, not the huge number of runs worth of improvement that BP identifies. As certainly nothing in the various zone rating numbers suggests any great fielding improvement for Carlos from 06 to 07. And Win Shares also shows a more drastic drop in Delgado's value on offense than BP -- the net result is that Win Shares an enormous drop in Carlos's overall value from 06 to 07, while as you point out WARP shows no drop at all. That kind of gap between the two systems doesn't seem to happen often, and seems to happen more often with first basemen. Anyway it's a good reason to use both Win Shares and WARP, rather than just one or the other, for this sort of thing.