The selection of Jimmy Rollins as NL MVP for 2007 is a clear mistake based on the best statistical models available. According to both Win Shares and in WARP, Rollins was not in the top 5 most valuable players in the league, though he was in the second 5.
I suspect a lot of writers were wowed by Rollins' enormous runs scored total, the most in the NL in six seasons and the third highest run scoring total by a major league shortstop since 1900. Nor did the writers ignore homers -- Rollins hit a lot for a shortstop. Rollins is only the second NL shortstop to top 25 homers in a season more than once. Ernie Banks did it 7 times.
The writers are clearly failing to adjust for the favorable runs scoring and home run hitting environment in the Phillies' home park (an environment which gave us Ryan Howard's mistaken 2006 MVP as well) and for Rollins' huge number of outs.
Most runs scored in a season, NL, 2002-2007:
1. Jimmy Rollins (2007) 139
2. Albert Pujols (2003) 137
3. Todd Helton (2003) 135
4. Albert Pujols (2004) 133
5. Chase Utley (2006) 131
Most runs scored in a season by an MLB player playing most of his games at shortstop, 1900-2007:
1. Woody English (1930) 152
2. Alex Rodriguez (1996) 141
3. Jimmy Rollins (2007) 139
4. Frank Crosetti (1936) 137
5/6. Alex Rodriguez (2000) and Derek Jeter (1999) 134
Woody English was a fine player for the Cubs who had his only two great years in 1930-31, two of the biggest hitting years in history league-wide. English's historic 1930 run scoring took place in the same 1930 Cubs lineup as Hack Wilson's all-time record number of runs batted in.
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