Five pitchers since 1900 have had at least 10 wins and an ERA+ of at least 150 in their final season in the major leagues. In order of highest ERA+, these five final seasons were:
1. Sandy Koufax 1966 (190 ERA+, 27 wins)
2. Larry French 1942 (178 ERA+, 15 wins)
3. J.R. Richard 1980 (173 ERA+, 10 wins)
4. John Tudor 1990 (158 ERA+, 12 wins)
5. Phil Douglas 1922 (153 ERA+, 11 wins)
Larry French isn't much remembered now, but had a very nice career, mostly with the Pirates and Cubs, though his excellent final year, having perfected a knuckleball, was with the Dodgers . He had the second-most wins in the NL in the 1930s, with only Hall of Famer Carl Hubbell ahead of him. Among left-handed pitchers, French is eighth in NL wins since 1900. Really old-time Cub fans can remember him as a rarity, a World Series pitcher for the Cubs. With 5 mound appearances for the Cubbies in the Series (1935 and 1938), it is correct to say that in the last 100 years only one pitcher, Charlie Root, has pitched in more World Series games for the Cubs than Larry French.
In his very last start in the major leagues, September 23, 1942, French pitched a complete game shutout for Brooklyn, facing the minimum 27 batters and coming inches from a perfect game. The only batter to reach base against French that day for the opposing Phillies was Nick Etten, who in the second inning lined a single just out of the reach of shortstop Pee Wee Reese. Etten was then erased on a double play. French won again in relief for the Dodgers a few days later, with Brooklyn trying to hang on in the pennant race with only one more day left in the season. According to the New York Times, French had a bonus provision in his contract for 1942 that paid him an extra $2,500 if he pitched 150 innings -- he only made it to 147 and two-thirds, but apparently the Dodgers paid him anyway.
In January, 1943 he joined the Navy and was stationed just a short distance from Ebbets Field, at the Brooklyn Navy Yard. He apparently worked out a deal with the Dodgers in which he would pitch part time for them in 1943, at least until he got his 200th career win (indeed he even showed up for a Dodgers pre-season workout at West Point but practice was over for the day by the time he arrived). However, Navy headquarters in Washington refused to grant French's request for permission, for fear of a "flood of such requests" (NY Times, April 19, 1943). After that he stuck with the military, serving in both World War II and Korea, only finally leaving the Navy in 1969, having reached the rank of captain. Though he didn't manage to win those last three games and get to 200 career wins as he wanted, he did end up with one of the greatest final seasons in major league history.
A useful comparison for modern Mets fans to get a sense of French's career accomplishments might be this one:
Larry French career: 197 Wins, 14 seasons, 3.44 career ERA, 114 career ERA+
Dwight Gooden career: 194 Wins, 16 seasons, 3.51 ERA, 111 career ERA+
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Rollins and Runs
The selection of Jimmy Rollins as NL MVP for 2007 is a clear mistake based on the best statistical models available. According to both Win Shares and in WARP, Rollins was not in the top 5 most valuable players in the league, though he was in the second 5.
I suspect a lot of writers were wowed by Rollins' enormous runs scored total, the most in the NL in six seasons and the third highest run scoring total by a major league shortstop since 1900. Nor did the writers ignore homers -- Rollins hit a lot for a shortstop. Rollins is only the second NL shortstop to top 25 homers in a season more than once. Ernie Banks did it 7 times.
The writers are clearly failing to adjust for the favorable runs scoring and home run hitting environment in the Phillies' home park (an environment which gave us Ryan Howard's mistaken 2006 MVP as well) and for Rollins' huge number of outs.
Most runs scored in a season, NL, 2002-2007:
1. Jimmy Rollins (2007) 139
2. Albert Pujols (2003) 137
3. Todd Helton (2003) 135
4. Albert Pujols (2004) 133
5. Chase Utley (2006) 131
Most runs scored in a season by an MLB player playing most of his games at shortstop, 1900-2007:
1. Woody English (1930) 152
2. Alex Rodriguez (1996) 141
3. Jimmy Rollins (2007) 139
4. Frank Crosetti (1936) 137
5/6. Alex Rodriguez (2000) and Derek Jeter (1999) 134
Woody English was a fine player for the Cubs who had his only two great years in 1930-31, two of the biggest hitting years in history league-wide. English's historic 1930 run scoring took place in the same 1930 Cubs lineup as Hack Wilson's all-time record number of runs batted in.
I suspect a lot of writers were wowed by Rollins' enormous runs scored total, the most in the NL in six seasons and the third highest run scoring total by a major league shortstop since 1900. Nor did the writers ignore homers -- Rollins hit a lot for a shortstop. Rollins is only the second NL shortstop to top 25 homers in a season more than once. Ernie Banks did it 7 times.
The writers are clearly failing to adjust for the favorable runs scoring and home run hitting environment in the Phillies' home park (an environment which gave us Ryan Howard's mistaken 2006 MVP as well) and for Rollins' huge number of outs.
Most runs scored in a season, NL, 2002-2007:
1. Jimmy Rollins (2007) 139
2. Albert Pujols (2003) 137
3. Todd Helton (2003) 135
4. Albert Pujols (2004) 133
5. Chase Utley (2006) 131
Most runs scored in a season by an MLB player playing most of his games at shortstop, 1900-2007:
1. Woody English (1930) 152
2. Alex Rodriguez (1996) 141
3. Jimmy Rollins (2007) 139
4. Frank Crosetti (1936) 137
5/6. Alex Rodriguez (2000) and Derek Jeter (1999) 134
Woody English was a fine player for the Cubs who had his only two great years in 1930-31, two of the biggest hitting years in history league-wide. English's historic 1930 run scoring took place in the same 1930 Cubs lineup as Hack Wilson's all-time record number of runs batted in.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Card Carriers
In honor of Metaforian's houseguests from St. Louis this Thanksgiving, let's look at the Cardinals with the most career home runs (regular season) at Shea Stadium (courtesy of the Day-By-Day Database at Baseball Musings):
George Hendrick 10
Keith Hernandez 8
Mark McGwire, Albert Pujols and Ray Lankford 7
Lou Brock, Darrell Porter, Ted Simmons and Ken Reitz 6
Willie McGee, Mike Shannon and Brian Jordan 5
George Hendrick is only seventh in total Cardinals homers since 1964 (when Shea opened), but he did seem to enjoy hitting against the Mets: of his 122 Cardinals homers, 17 came against the Mets, the most against any single opponent during his career with St. Louis.
Hendrick's career offers a lesson in keeping an open mind about people. He had a distinct reputation during his playing days, in the 1970s and 1980s, for not hustling, for not playing hard. He absolutely refused to talk to reporters for most of his playing career and was famous for his sullenness (apparently at one point as teammates Gaylord Perry and George Hendrick refused to play when the other was in the lineup) . Yet the guy was a very fine player for many years, was in the majors for 18 seasons and, perhaps most amazing of all, has served for a decade and a half now as a major league coach and minor league instructor and manager -- he's been continuously employed on the management/coaching side of baseball since 1993. Probably not what the guys who managed him when he played would have expected.
George Hendrick 10
Keith Hernandez 8
Mark McGwire, Albert Pujols and Ray Lankford 7
Lou Brock, Darrell Porter, Ted Simmons and Ken Reitz 6
Willie McGee, Mike Shannon and Brian Jordan 5
George Hendrick is only seventh in total Cardinals homers since 1964 (when Shea opened), but he did seem to enjoy hitting against the Mets: of his 122 Cardinals homers, 17 came against the Mets, the most against any single opponent during his career with St. Louis.
Hendrick's career offers a lesson in keeping an open mind about people. He had a distinct reputation during his playing days, in the 1970s and 1980s, for not hustling, for not playing hard. He absolutely refused to talk to reporters for most of his playing career and was famous for his sullenness (apparently at one point as teammates Gaylord Perry and George Hendrick refused to play when the other was in the lineup) . Yet the guy was a very fine player for many years, was in the majors for 18 seasons and, perhaps most amazing of all, has served for a decade and a half now as a major league coach and minor league instructor and manager -- he's been continuously employed on the management/coaching side of baseball since 1993. Probably not what the guys who managed him when he played would have expected.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
American Beauties
The American League has played 107 seasons as a major league. In just over half those seasons, the Win Shares MVP has been one of the 11 guys who each led the league in Win Shares three or more times. Just about a third of the Win Shares MVPs have been earned by just the top five guys, here:
Mickey Mantle, 9 times AL Win Shares MVP
Babe Ruth, 9 times
Ted Williams, 7 times
Alex Rodriguez, 5 times
Ty Cobb, 5 times
Also with more than two times as AL Win Shares MVP:
Jimmy Foxx, 4 times
Carl Yastrzemski, 3 times
Frank Thomas, 3 times
Tris Speaker, 3 times
Rickey Henderson, 3 times
Lou Gehrig, 3 times
When you read personal criticism of A-Rod, consider how complicated and controversial the the biographies of the other four top guys were as well: Ruth and Mantle famously hedonistic, Cobb famously misanthropic, Williams famously abrasive. Of the five greats, A-Rod might be the one you would most want to marry your sister (or marry yourself, depending on your gender and preference).
Mickey Mantle, 9 times AL Win Shares MVP
Babe Ruth, 9 times
Ted Williams, 7 times
Alex Rodriguez, 5 times
Ty Cobb, 5 times
Also with more than two times as AL Win Shares MVP:
Jimmy Foxx, 4 times
Carl Yastrzemski, 3 times
Frank Thomas, 3 times
Tris Speaker, 3 times
Rickey Henderson, 3 times
Lou Gehrig, 3 times
When you read personal criticism of A-Rod, consider how complicated and controversial the the biographies of the other four top guys were as well: Ruth and Mantle famously hedonistic, Cobb famously misanthropic, Williams famously abrasive. Of the five greats, A-Rod might be the one you would most want to marry your sister (or marry yourself, depending on your gender and preference).
Sunday, November 18, 2007
All-Americans
Babe Ruth's last game as an American Leaguer was September 30, 1935, a bit over 73 years ago. Here are the players with the most American League homers since that date:
1. Harmon Killebrew 573
2. Reggie Jackson 563
3. Rafael Palmeiro 544
4. Mickey Mantle 536
5. Ted Williams 521
6. Alex Rodriguez 518
7. Frank Thomas 513
8. Manny Ramirez 490
9. Jose Canseco 462
10. Carl Yastrzemski 452
#s 6, 7 and 8 on the list above were active American Leaguers as of the 2007 season. The highest career AL homer totals by players active in the AL in 2007 after that are:
Jim Thome 411
Jason Giambi 364
Ivan Rodriguez 272
Paul Konerko 269
David Ortiz 266
We all think of David Ortiz as a significant power hitter of the current generation, including 54 dingers in 2006. A-Rod is about 4 months older than David Ortiz, and has hit almost twice as many career homers as Ortiz.
1. Harmon Killebrew 573
2. Reggie Jackson 563
3. Rafael Palmeiro 544
4. Mickey Mantle 536
5. Ted Williams 521
6. Alex Rodriguez 518
7. Frank Thomas 513
8. Manny Ramirez 490
9. Jose Canseco 462
10. Carl Yastrzemski 452
#s 6, 7 and 8 on the list above were active American Leaguers as of the 2007 season. The highest career AL homer totals by players active in the AL in 2007 after that are:
Jim Thome 411
Jason Giambi 364
Ivan Rodriguez 272
Paul Konerko 269
David Ortiz 266
We all think of David Ortiz as a significant power hitter of the current generation, including 54 dingers in 2006. A-Rod is about 4 months older than David Ortiz, and has hit almost twice as many career homers as Ortiz.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Walking Tour
Since the Mets franchise began play in 1962, batters have walked at least 100 times in a season 278 times, just about 6 times a year on average. In 2007, 11 guys walked at least 100 times. But the Mets have had only one 100 or more walk season in their history.
Most Walks in a Season by a New York Met Batter:
1 John Olerud (1999) 125
2/3 D. Strawberry (1987) 97
2/3 K. Hernandez (1984) 97
4 John Olerud (1998) 96
5/6/7 Carlos Beltran (2006) 95
5/6/7 Edgardo Alfonzo (2000) 95
5/6/7 Bud Harrelson (1970) 95
8/9 David Wright (2007) 94
8/9 Keith Hernandez (1986) 94
10 Lee Mazzilli (1979) 93
Note the huge gap between first and second on this list: In 1999 Olerud walked about 29% more than the second highest walk total in Mets history.
Franchise record holders for BBs in a season:
Astros: Jeff Bagwell (1999) 149
Braves: Bob Elliot (1948) 131
Brewers: Jeromy Burnitz (2000) 99
Cardinals: Mark McGwire (1998) 162
Cubs: Jimmy Sheckard (1911) 147
D-Backs: Luis Gonzalez (2001) 100
Dodgers: Eddie Stanky (1945) 148
Giants: Barry Bonds (2004) 232
Marlins: Gary Sheffield (1996) 142
Mets: John Olerud (1999) 125
Nats/Expos: Ken Singleton (1973) 123
Padres: Jack Clark (1989) 132
Pirates: Ralph Kiner (1951) 137
Phillies: Len Dykstra (1993) 129
Reds: Joe Morgan (1975) 132
Rockies: Todd Helton (2004) 127
Angels: Tony Phillips (1995) 115
Athletics: Eddie Joost 149 (1949)
Blue Jays: Carlos Delgado (2000) 123
Indians: Jim Thome (1999) 127
Mariners: Edgar Martinez (1996) 123
Orioles/Browns: Lu Blue (1929) 126
Rangers/Senators: Frank Howard (1970) 132
Rays: Carlos Pena (2007) 103
Red Sox: Ted Williams (1949) 162
Royals: John Mayberry (1973) 122
Tigers: Roy Cullenbine (1947) 137
Twins/Senators: Eddie Yost (1956) 151
White Sox: Frank Thomas (1991) 138
Yankees: Babe Ruth (1923) 170
Ted Williams has the seven highest walk seasons in Red Sox history, and eight of the top nine.
Most Walks in a Season by a New York Met Batter:
1 John Olerud (1999) 125
2/3 D. Strawberry (1987) 97
2/3 K. Hernandez (1984) 97
4 John Olerud (1998) 96
5/6/7 Carlos Beltran (2006) 95
5/6/7 Edgardo Alfonzo (2000) 95
5/6/7 Bud Harrelson (1970) 95
8/9 David Wright (2007) 94
8/9 Keith Hernandez (1986) 94
10 Lee Mazzilli (1979) 93
Note the huge gap between first and second on this list: In 1999 Olerud walked about 29% more than the second highest walk total in Mets history.
Franchise record holders for BBs in a season:
Astros: Jeff Bagwell (1999) 149
Braves: Bob Elliot (1948) 131
Brewers: Jeromy Burnitz (2000) 99
Cardinals: Mark McGwire (1998) 162
Cubs: Jimmy Sheckard (1911) 147
D-Backs: Luis Gonzalez (2001) 100
Dodgers: Eddie Stanky (1945) 148
Giants: Barry Bonds (2004) 232
Marlins: Gary Sheffield (1996) 142
Mets: John Olerud (1999) 125
Nats/Expos: Ken Singleton (1973) 123
Padres: Jack Clark (1989) 132
Pirates: Ralph Kiner (1951) 137
Phillies: Len Dykstra (1993) 129
Reds: Joe Morgan (1975) 132
Rockies: Todd Helton (2004) 127
Angels: Tony Phillips (1995) 115
Athletics: Eddie Joost 149 (1949)
Blue Jays: Carlos Delgado (2000) 123
Indians: Jim Thome (1999) 127
Mariners: Edgar Martinez (1996) 123
Orioles/Browns: Lu Blue (1929) 126
Rangers/Senators: Frank Howard (1970) 132
Rays: Carlos Pena (2007) 103
Red Sox: Ted Williams (1949) 162
Royals: John Mayberry (1973) 122
Tigers: Roy Cullenbine (1947) 137
Twins/Senators: Eddie Yost (1956) 151
White Sox: Frank Thomas (1991) 138
Yankees: Babe Ruth (1923) 170
Ted Williams has the seven highest walk seasons in Red Sox history, and eight of the top nine.
Nuxhall of Fame
Joe Nuxhall passed away Thursday. He was most famous to baseball fans for his first appearance in a major league game: he was in ninth grade and 15 years old in 1944 when he came in to pitch for the Reds in the ninth inning of a game Cincinnati was already losing to the Cardinals 13-0. He got two outs but walked five and gave up five runs on two hits, including one to Stan Musial. He made it it back to the majors 8 seasons later.
After the pitched-at-15-years-old thing, Nuxhall is probably next most famous as a long, long-time Reds announcer, from the mid-60s until just recently. But sometimes forgotten is that he was a fine pitcher who had a long and productive major league career. His 135 -117 career won-loss record with a 101 career ERA+ gives him some very comparable numbers to, for example, Ron Darling's 136W-116L, 95 ERA+ career. Like Nuxhall, Darling also became famous when he was still in school (in a College World Series game in 1981 Darling pitching 11 innings of no-hit ball against Frank Viola, before losing on a bloop single, an error and a steal of home in the twelfth) and Ron has himself become a very well-respected announcer.
Most Wins By a Reds Pitcher Since World War II:
1. Jim Maloney 134
2. Joe Nuxhall 130
3. Tom Browning 123
4. Gary Nolan 110
5. Bob Purkey 103
6. Mario Soto 100
7. Jose Rijo 97
8. Jim O'Toole 94
9. Don Gullett 91
10. Ken Raffensberger 89
After the pitched-at-15-years-old thing, Nuxhall is probably next most famous as a long, long-time Reds announcer, from the mid-60s until just recently. But sometimes forgotten is that he was a fine pitcher who had a long and productive major league career. His 135 -117 career won-loss record with a 101 career ERA+ gives him some very comparable numbers to, for example, Ron Darling's 136W-116L, 95 ERA+ career. Like Nuxhall, Darling also became famous when he was still in school (in a College World Series game in 1981 Darling pitching 11 innings of no-hit ball against Frank Viola, before losing on a bloop single, an error and a steal of home in the twelfth) and Ron has himself become a very well-respected announcer.
Most Wins By a Reds Pitcher Since World War II:
1. Jim Maloney 134
2. Joe Nuxhall 130
3. Tom Browning 123
4. Gary Nolan 110
5. Bob Purkey 103
6. Mario Soto 100
7. Jose Rijo 97
8. Jim O'Toole 94
9. Don Gullett 91
10. Ken Raffensberger 89
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Brains and Braun
Baseball-reference.com calculates Ryan Braun's OPS+ (that's OPS measured against an average of 100 and adjusted to reflect the effects of home park and the year's league average htting level) at 153. Among hitters playing in their age 23 year, that is tied for the 34th best OPS+ season ever (min. 490 PAs). Braun's 2007 is tied for 34th with Rusty Staub's 1967 season, exactly 40 seasons before.
To give you a sense of how much different historical eras and different home park effects can influence hitting stats, Braun's 153 OPS+ is based on his raw 1.004 OPS, while Staub's 1967 season included a raw .871 OPS. Comparing just raw slugging percentages, Braun's 2007 SLG was .634 and Staub's 1967 SLG was .473. Rusty played in 1967 in a very tough home park for hitters (the Astrodome, where just about 10% fewer runs were scored than in Astros road games in 1967) and in a very tough year for hitters. In 2007, the NL's overall OPS was .757. Compare that to .673 forty seasons earlier. So Staub's much lower raw hitting percentages in 1967 were comparable, in real value to his team, to Braun's gaudy 2007 percentages.
To give you a sense of how much different historical eras and different home park effects can influence hitting stats, Braun's 153 OPS+ is based on his raw 1.004 OPS, while Staub's 1967 season included a raw .871 OPS. Comparing just raw slugging percentages, Braun's 2007 SLG was .634 and Staub's 1967 SLG was .473. Rusty played in 1967 in a very tough home park for hitters (the Astrodome, where just about 10% fewer runs were scored than in Astros road games in 1967) and in a very tough year for hitters. In 2007, the NL's overall OPS was .757. Compare that to .673 forty seasons earlier. So Staub's much lower raw hitting percentages in 1967 were comparable, in real value to his team, to Braun's gaudy 2007 percentages.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Tenace, Anyone
Bill Madden of The New York Daily News points out today that Jorge Posada is fourth all-time among catchers in career OPS. Big cheer to Madden and the News for using OPS, though the citation was prefaced with the the slightly snarky "for what it's worth" (hey, traditional media, you don't need to be embarrassed about using stats that are more accurate than batting average). Plus, it would have been helpful and more accurate to have the minimum number of games, seasons or PAs that Madden used to get his top four. And finally, Posada gets a big lift in Madden's list by playing in the current lively ball era. It's probably better when doing cross-era comparisons use a stat that reflects adjustment for different historical run environments, such as baseball-reference's OPS+. Posada is tied for 10th in OPS+ among hitters (min. 4000 PAs) who played a majority of their games at catcher:
Piazza 142
Tenace 136
Cochrane 128
Dickey 127
Bench/Hartnett/Bresnahan 126
Berra/Lombardi 125
Posada/Campanella 124
Gene Tenace is surely one of the most underrated players in baseball history, aside from one spectacular World Series in 1972. He played in a relatively low scoring era, in low scoring home parks, with a very unusual portion of his value in his ability to get walks, a talent that was even more undervalued at the time he played than it is now and an ability that is probably even more overlooked in a catcher/first baseman because it is an unexpected ability (his batting eye probably would have been better understood by fans as a valuble ability if he's been a shortstop or center fielder). He had almost every attribute that leads a batter to be underrated: his batting average and home run numbers look low but his real offensive contribution to his team's record was quite impressive.
Piazza 142
Tenace 136
Cochrane 128
Dickey 127
Bench/Hartnett/Bresnahan 126
Berra/Lombardi 125
Posada/Campanella 124
Gene Tenace is surely one of the most underrated players in baseball history, aside from one spectacular World Series in 1972. He played in a relatively low scoring era, in low scoring home parks, with a very unusual portion of his value in his ability to get walks, a talent that was even more undervalued at the time he played than it is now and an ability that is probably even more overlooked in a catcher/first baseman because it is an unexpected ability (his batting eye probably would have been better understood by fans as a valuble ability if he's been a shortstop or center fielder). He had almost every attribute that leads a batter to be underrated: his batting average and home run numbers look low but his real offensive contribution to his team's record was quite impressive.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Rookie Bats and Gloves
ROY awards coming this afternoon. I have no idea who will win in the NL, but who most deserves it?
Win Shares:
Tulowitzki 25
Braun 22
Pence 20
WARP3 (Baseball-Prospectus's overall value stat):
Tulowitzki 10.8
Pence 7.5
Braun 4.8
WARP is much tougher on pure-offense guys than Win Shares -- like Braun, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder also come in much lower ranked in WARP than in Win Shares.
Win Shares:
Tulowitzki 25
Braun 22
Pence 20
WARP3 (Baseball-Prospectus's overall value stat):
Tulowitzki 10.8
Pence 7.5
Braun 4.8
WARP is much tougher on pure-offense guys than Win Shares -- like Braun, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder also come in much lower ranked in WARP than in Win Shares.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Stealing Home
Only one season to go for Shea Stadium.
25 or More Career Stolen Bases at Shea Stadium, by a Visting Team Player:
1. Lou Brock 48
2. Tim Raines 33
3. Jimmy Rollins 28
4/5/6. Omar Moreno/Vince Coleman/Barry Bonds 26
7. Willie Davis 25
25 or More Career Stolen Bases at Shea Stadium, by a Visting Team Player:
1. Lou Brock 48
2. Tim Raines 33
3. Jimmy Rollins 28
4/5/6. Omar Moreno/Vince Coleman/Barry Bonds 26
7. Willie Davis 25
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Right Off The Bat
Mets Home Runs As A Met, Leading Off the Game
Mookie Wilson/Jose Reyes 5
Lenny Dykstra/Kaz Matsui/Wayne Garrett 3
Over Mets history, 49 times a Mets batter has hit a home run leading off a (regular season) game, that is, in the first plate appearance in the top of the first inning. That’s 49 leadoff homers in 3,659 regular season away games the Mets have played (of course, a batter can only hit a homer leading off a game if he is the leadoff batter for the visiting team). So overall, Mets leadoff hitters have started a game with a homer about once in every 75 opportunities (3659/49=74.67).
How does that compare to the Mets’ overall home run percentage? Across all their regular season plate appearances, in all their games from 1962 though 2007 (that’s 278,183 PAs in total), the Mets have hit home runs on average about once every 48 PAs. So a Mets hitter leading off a game has been significantly less likely to hit a homer than the average Met hitter. that's perhaps what one would expect, give that leadoff hitters are not usually chosen for ther home run hitting prowess, although one would expect that leadoff hitters will be more capable of hitting homers than most eighth place hitters and almost every ninth place hitter. That would perhaps limit the degree to which leadoff hitters fall below team average in home run frequency.
Indeed, across the majors as a whole in 2007, the frequency of home runs in the first plate appearance of games was ver close to the frequency of homers in the average plate appearance overall. Of the 4,957 regular season games played in the majors in 2007, 59 began with a homer in the first plate appearnace -- that's once every 41.2 games. Overall, the 2007 regular season saw homers hit about once every 38.1 plate apearances. But because homers to lead off games can only be hit by the visting club, we shoul compare leadoff homer frequency to overall average homer frequency by visiting teams, which was once every 39.6 plate appearances. The difference in 2007 between the overall frequency of homers by visiting team players, one per 39.6 PAs, and the game-leadoff frequency, one per 41.2 leadoff PAs, was very small. Essentially, if major league batters leading off games had hit homers in 2007 with thes same frequency as players hit homers overall, it would only have increased game leadoff homers from 59 to 61.
More Mets game-leadoff home run facts:
-No Met had a game leadoff homer in 2007, this coming after Jose Reyes set a new team record in 2006 for game leadoff homers by hitting 4 of them. Reyes broke a record that had been held by Kaz Matsui (3 game leadoff homers in 2004) and Lenny Dykstra (3 game leadoff homers in 1986).
-The first game leadoff homer by a Met was Jim Hickman's blast on August 24, 1963 against Cubs pitcher and future Met Cal Koonce. Hickman's homer to start the game was all the Mets needed that day, as they won 5-0 on a complete game shutout by Carl Willey (whose 3.10 ERA that season was the lowest for a Met pitcher with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title until Tom Seaver came along).
Mookie Wilson/Jose Reyes 5
Lenny Dykstra/Kaz Matsui/Wayne Garrett 3
Over Mets history, 49 times a Mets batter has hit a home run leading off a (regular season) game, that is, in the first plate appearance in the top of the first inning. That’s 49 leadoff homers in 3,659 regular season away games the Mets have played (of course, a batter can only hit a homer leading off a game if he is the leadoff batter for the visiting team). So overall, Mets leadoff hitters have started a game with a homer about once in every 75 opportunities (3659/49=74.67).
How does that compare to the Mets’ overall home run percentage? Across all their regular season plate appearances, in all their games from 1962 though 2007 (that’s 278,183 PAs in total), the Mets have hit home runs on average about once every 48 PAs. So a Mets hitter leading off a game has been significantly less likely to hit a homer than the average Met hitter. that's perhaps what one would expect, give that leadoff hitters are not usually chosen for ther home run hitting prowess, although one would expect that leadoff hitters will be more capable of hitting homers than most eighth place hitters and almost every ninth place hitter. That would perhaps limit the degree to which leadoff hitters fall below team average in home run frequency.
Indeed, across the majors as a whole in 2007, the frequency of home runs in the first plate appearance of games was ver close to the frequency of homers in the average plate appearance overall. Of the 4,957 regular season games played in the majors in 2007, 59 began with a homer in the first plate appearnace -- that's once every 41.2 games. Overall, the 2007 regular season saw homers hit about once every 38.1 plate apearances. But because homers to lead off games can only be hit by the visting club, we shoul compare leadoff homer frequency to overall average homer frequency by visiting teams, which was once every 39.6 plate appearances. The difference in 2007 between the overall frequency of homers by visiting team players, one per 39.6 PAs, and the game-leadoff frequency, one per 41.2 leadoff PAs, was very small. Essentially, if major league batters leading off games had hit homers in 2007 with thes same frequency as players hit homers overall, it would only have increased game leadoff homers from 59 to 61.
More Mets game-leadoff home run facts:
-No Met had a game leadoff homer in 2007, this coming after Jose Reyes set a new team record in 2006 for game leadoff homers by hitting 4 of them. Reyes broke a record that had been held by Kaz Matsui (3 game leadoff homers in 2004) and Lenny Dykstra (3 game leadoff homers in 1986).
-The first game leadoff homer by a Met was Jim Hickman's blast on August 24, 1963 against Cubs pitcher and future Met Cal Koonce. Hickman's homer to start the game was all the Mets needed that day, as they won 5-0 on a complete game shutout by Carl Willey (whose 3.10 ERA that season was the lowest for a Met pitcher with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title until Tom Seaver came along).
Friday, November 9, 2007
Face Time
Most Batters Faced by A Major League Pitcher, 2000-2007:
1. Livan Hernandez 7,916
2. Tim Hudson 7,271
3. Javier Vasquez 7,259
4. Greg Maddux 7,160
5. Tom Glavine 7,150
These are, of course, multi-season numbers acumulated across all 8 seasons, not single season numbers.
Note the large gap between Livan and second place, a nearly 10% difference.
Most PAs by a Major League Batter 2000-2007
1. Alex Rodriguez 5,639
2. Bobby Abreu 5,581
3. Derek Jeter 5,539
4. Johnny Damon 5,518
5. Miguel Tejada 5,488
Note that the top starting pitchers participate in many more PAs (in the form of Batters Faced) than do the top hitters.
Also, it's amusing to see that the top 4 PA guys in the majors this decade all played for the Yankees in 2007. And if today's newspaper is to be believed, the Yanks may be looking to add Tejada now too, as an A-Rod replacement.
1. Livan Hernandez 7,916
2. Tim Hudson 7,271
3. Javier Vasquez 7,259
4. Greg Maddux 7,160
5. Tom Glavine 7,150
These are, of course, multi-season numbers acumulated across all 8 seasons, not single season numbers.
Note the large gap between Livan and second place, a nearly 10% difference.
Most PAs by a Major League Batter 2000-2007
1. Alex Rodriguez 5,639
2. Bobby Abreu 5,581
3. Derek Jeter 5,539
4. Johnny Damon 5,518
5. Miguel Tejada 5,488
Note that the top starting pitchers participate in many more PAs (in the form of Batters Faced) than do the top hitters.
Also, it's amusing to see that the top 4 PA guys in the majors this decade all played for the Yankees in 2007. And if today's newspaper is to be believed, the Yanks may be looking to add Tejada now too, as an A-Rod replacement.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Teeny Boppers
Most Career Major League Homers, Prior to 20th Birthday:
1. Tony Conigliaro 24
2. Mel Ott 19
3. Ken Griffey Jr. 16
4. Phil Cavaretta 14
5. Mickey Mantle 13
6. Ed Kranepool 12
7. Robin Yount 11
1. Tony Conigliaro 24
2. Mel Ott 19
3. Ken Griffey Jr. 16
4. Phil Cavaretta 14
5. Mickey Mantle 13
6. Ed Kranepool 12
7. Robin Yount 11
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Eastern Heroes
Bill James' Win Shares estimates how many wins a player contributed to his team from all apsects of his performance, and thus can be a useful metric for picking the real most valuable player during a season. Here are the Win Shares MVPs in the National Leage East each season since the NL East took on its current alignment in 1994:
2007 David Wright, NY
2006 Carlos Beltran, NY
2005 Carlos Delgado, FLA
2004 Bobby Abreu, PHI
2003 Gary Sheffield, ATL
2002 Chipper Jones, ATL
2001 Scott Rolen, PHI
2000 Edgardo Alfonzo NY
1999 Chipper Jones, ATL
1998 John Olerud, NY
1997 Scott Rolen, PHI
1996 Gary Sheffield, FLA
1995 Greg Maddux, ATL
1994 Greg Maddux, ATL
In 14 seasons, that's 2 for Chipper, 2 for Maddux, 2 for Sheffield (two different teams), 2 for Rolen, plus 4 for the Mets and one each for Abreu and the pre-Mets Delgado.
David Wright this season is the first NL East player since the 1994 divisional re-alignment to lead the entire NL in Win Shares. On those on the above list, only Chipper Jones in 1999 actually won the real-life MVP. Perhaps David will win it this year.
Bonds, Bagwell and Pujols won 10 of the last 14 NL Win Shares MVPs. Besides Wright this year, the other winners since 1994 have been Jeff Kent and Mark McGwire plus pre-Mets Mike Piazza and Tony Gwynn, who tied for NL Win Shares MVP in 1997.
2007 David Wright, NY
2006 Carlos Beltran, NY
2005 Carlos Delgado, FLA
2004 Bobby Abreu, PHI
2003 Gary Sheffield, ATL
2002 Chipper Jones, ATL
2001 Scott Rolen, PHI
2000 Edgardo Alfonzo NY
1999 Chipper Jones, ATL
1998 John Olerud, NY
1997 Scott Rolen, PHI
1996 Gary Sheffield, FLA
1995 Greg Maddux, ATL
1994 Greg Maddux, ATL
In 14 seasons, that's 2 for Chipper, 2 for Maddux, 2 for Sheffield (two different teams), 2 for Rolen, plus 4 for the Mets and one each for Abreu and the pre-Mets Delgado.
David Wright this season is the first NL East player since the 1994 divisional re-alignment to lead the entire NL in Win Shares. On those on the above list, only Chipper Jones in 1999 actually won the real-life MVP. Perhaps David will win it this year.
Bonds, Bagwell and Pujols won 10 of the last 14 NL Win Shares MVPs. Besides Wright this year, the other winners since 1994 have been Jeff Kent and Mark McGwire plus pre-Mets Mike Piazza and Tony Gwynn, who tied for NL Win Shares MVP in 1997.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Met/Yankee Power Number
Bill James used the mathematical concept of the "harmonic mean" to create what he called the "power-speed" number, identifying the players with the most substantial combination of home runs and stolen bases. You get the harmonic mean of two numbers by dividing double the product of the two numbers by the sum of the two numbers. A 30-30 homer-SB season produces a harmonic mean "power-speed number" of 30, while a season with 60 homers but only 1 stolen base, or a season of 60 SBs but only 1 HR, produces the much lower power-speed number of about 2. The point of using the harmonic mean formula is that you need high numbers in both categories to get a high combined number.
We can use the same harmonic mean formula to see which players have hit a bunch of homers for both the Mets and the Yankees. Using HRs for the Mets and HRs for the Yankees as the two data points to get a harmonic mean "Met-Yankee power number" for hitters, here are the top 10 guys in "Met-Yankee power number"
1. Darryl Strawberry 70.5
2. Robin Ventura 49.1
3. Rickey Henderson 20.8
4. Tony Clark 16.0
5. Charley Smith 15.7
6. Marv Throneberry 15.5
7. Claudell Washington 14.4
8. Lee Mazzilli 11.0
9. Todd Zeile 10.5
10. Gene Woodling 9.1
Altogether, 34 guys have hit at least one homer for each of the Mets and the Yankees. The full list of players who have played for both the Mets and Yanks is here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/multifranchise.cgi?level=franch&t1=NYM&t2=NYY&t3=&t4=&submit=Find+Players
Marv Throneberry, whose name has become a kind of synecdoche (look it up!) for the hapless early Mets, is in 6th place on the Met-Yankee power number list. It is not often mentioned that Marvellous Marv spent his first three major league seasons with the Yankees: he played in 141 games as a Yankee but only 130 for the Mets, had almost as many ABs for the Yankees (344) as for the Mets (371), and had very similar homer and BA totals for the two teams (16 HRs and .240 BA for the Mets, 15 HR and .238 BA for the Yankees).
We can use the same harmonic mean formula to see which players have hit a bunch of homers for both the Mets and the Yankees. Using HRs for the Mets and HRs for the Yankees as the two data points to get a harmonic mean "Met-Yankee power number" for hitters, here are the top 10 guys in "Met-Yankee power number"
1. Darryl Strawberry 70.5
2. Robin Ventura 49.1
3. Rickey Henderson 20.8
4. Tony Clark 16.0
5. Charley Smith 15.7
6. Marv Throneberry 15.5
7. Claudell Washington 14.4
8. Lee Mazzilli 11.0
9. Todd Zeile 10.5
10. Gene Woodling 9.1
Altogether, 34 guys have hit at least one homer for each of the Mets and the Yankees. The full list of players who have played for both the Mets and Yanks is here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/multifranchise.cgi?level=franch&t1=NYM&t2=NYY&t3=&t4=&submit=Find+Players
Marv Throneberry, whose name has become a kind of synecdoche (look it up!) for the hapless early Mets, is in 6th place on the Met-Yankee power number list. It is not often mentioned that Marvellous Marv spent his first three major league seasons with the Yankees: he played in 141 games as a Yankee but only 130 for the Mets, had almost as many ABs for the Yankees (344) as for the Mets (371), and had very similar homer and BA totals for the two teams (16 HRs and .240 BA for the Mets, 15 HR and .238 BA for the Yankees).
Monday, November 5, 2007
Moving Over
There's been some discussion lately among Mets fans about the possibility of the Mets signing Alex Rodriguez and trying David Wright at second base, a postion that may otherwise be a hole for the team going into 2008. Wright already has over 500 career games played at third so far in his career; it is quite unusual for a player with 500 games at third to also have long-term regular experience at second base. Indeed, only 8 players in all of major league history have had 500 career games played at both second base and third base. In order of most total career games played at the two positions, here are those 8 guys:
Jimmy Dykes: 1257 G at third, 722G at second
Phil Garner: 839 G at third, 975 G at second
Jim Gilliam: 761 G at third, 1046 G at second
Marty McManus: 725 G at third, 927 G at second
Edgardo Alfonzo 889 G at third, 549 G at second
Pete Rose: 634 G at third, 628 G at second
Gil McDougald 508 G at third, 599 G at second
Sparky Adams 532 G at third, 551 G at second
Notes on this list:
-- Alfonzo will certainly be familiar to Mets fans.
-- Despite appearing on this list, Pete Rose played more games in the outfield and more games at first base than he played at second or at third.
-- The oddest thing to me about this list is that the top guy on this list, Jimmy Dykes, is also the top guy on the list I posted here yesterday, which has absolutely nothing to do with today’s list (yesterday’s list was of the 10 longest-term managers who never finished in first place). And not only that, but the Number 2 guy on today’s list, Phil Garner, was number 4 on yesterday’s list. It appears that if the Mets want to win division titles, they should never hire Edgardo Alfonzo as their manager.
--as usual, the source for today's list is the play Index database at baseball-reference.com
Jimmy Dykes: 1257 G at third, 722G at second
Phil Garner: 839 G at third, 975 G at second
Jim Gilliam: 761 G at third, 1046 G at second
Marty McManus: 725 G at third, 927 G at second
Edgardo Alfonzo 889 G at third, 549 G at second
Pete Rose: 634 G at third, 628 G at second
Gil McDougald 508 G at third, 599 G at second
Sparky Adams 532 G at third, 551 G at second
Notes on this list:
-- Alfonzo will certainly be familiar to Mets fans.
-- Despite appearing on this list, Pete Rose played more games in the outfield and more games at first base than he played at second or at third.
-- The oddest thing to me about this list is that the top guy on this list, Jimmy Dykes, is also the top guy on the list I posted here yesterday, which has absolutely nothing to do with today’s list (yesterday’s list was of the 10 longest-term managers who never finished in first place). And not only that, but the Number 2 guy on today’s list, Phil Garner, was number 4 on yesterday’s list. It appears that if the Mets want to win division titles, they should never hire Edgardo Alfonzo as their manager.
--as usual, the source for today's list is the play Index database at baseball-reference.com
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Always the Bridesmaid
Most Games Managed in MLB by A Manager With No First Place Finishes in His Managerial Career:
1. Jimmy Dykes 2,962 games (.477 winning percentage)
2. Frank Robinson 2,242 games (.475 winning percentage)
3. Bobby Valentine 2,189 games (.510 winning percentage)
4. Phil Garner 2,041 games (.483 winning percentage)
5. Jack McKeon 1,952 games (.518 winning percentage)
6. Paul Richards 1,837 games (.506 winning percentage)
7. Jimmy McAleer 1,658 games (.453 winning percentage)
8. Patsy Donovan 1,597 games (.438 winning percentage)
9. Lee Fohl 1,521 games (.474 winning percentage)
10. Billy Barnie 1,480 games (.438 winning percentage)
Those looking for Gene Mauch on this list are reminded that although in his long managerial career he never got a team to the World Series, Mauch did manage two Angels teams to first place finishes. In 1982 his Angels led the best-of-five LCS two games to none, but the Brewers came back to win three straight to take the AL pennant. In Game 5, the Angels led 3-2 late but Cecil Cooper knocked in two runs in the bottom of the 7th, and Milwaukee's Bob McClure got six closing outs to send the Angels home for the year. And in the 1986 ALCS , the Angels took a 3 games to 1 lead into game 5 and a 5-2 lead into the 9th inning of that 5th game, only to have Don Baylor and Dave Henderson both hit ninth inning two-run homers to keep the Red Sox going, and Boston won games 6 and 7 handily. Mauch was perhaps snakebitten to the nth degree, but he did manage two first place teams.
1. Jimmy Dykes 2,962 games (.477 winning percentage)
2. Frank Robinson 2,242 games (.475 winning percentage)
3. Bobby Valentine 2,189 games (.510 winning percentage)
4. Phil Garner 2,041 games (.483 winning percentage)
5. Jack McKeon 1,952 games (.518 winning percentage)
6. Paul Richards 1,837 games (.506 winning percentage)
7. Jimmy McAleer 1,658 games (.453 winning percentage)
8. Patsy Donovan 1,597 games (.438 winning percentage)
9. Lee Fohl 1,521 games (.474 winning percentage)
10. Billy Barnie 1,480 games (.438 winning percentage)
Those looking for Gene Mauch on this list are reminded that although in his long managerial career he never got a team to the World Series, Mauch did manage two Angels teams to first place finishes. In 1982 his Angels led the best-of-five LCS two games to none, but the Brewers came back to win three straight to take the AL pennant. In Game 5, the Angels led 3-2 late but Cecil Cooper knocked in two runs in the bottom of the 7th, and Milwaukee's Bob McClure got six closing outs to send the Angels home for the year. And in the 1986 ALCS , the Angels took a 3 games to 1 lead into game 5 and a 5-2 lead into the 9th inning of that 5th game, only to have Don Baylor and Dave Henderson both hit ninth inning two-run homers to keep the Red Sox going, and Boston won games 6 and 7 handily. Mauch was perhaps snakebitten to the nth degree, but he did manage two first place teams.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
No Swat
Pedro Martinez started five games for the Mets in 2007, accumulated a total of 28 IP for the year, and didn't surrender a single home run all season.
Most Starts by a Met Pitcher in a Season in Which He Gave up 0 HRs:
Pedro Martinez 2007, 5 starts
Ron Darling 1983, 5 starts
Ed Lynch 1980, 4 starts
Pedro's 5 starts in a homer-free season is the most such starts in the majors since 1998, when John Halama of Seattle had 6 starts in a homer-free season. Going all the way back to 1900, the pitcher who had the most starts in a single season in which he gave up zero home runs was ... Babe Ruth! In 1916, the 21-year-old Babe had 41 starts, including 23 complete games, plus three relief appearances, for a total of 323 and two-thirds innings pitched, and surrendered not one home run all season. As a hitter he had 3 homers in 136 ABs that season. 1916 was certainly not a big year for home runs. That same season, Walter Johnson pitched even more innings than Ruth (38 starts, 36 complete games, 10 relief appearances and 369 and two-thirds innings altogether) and also allowed zero homers. All together there were 144 homers hit in the American League that season, a number topped by 10 of the 14 AL teams in 2007.
Since 1945, the most starts in a season by a pitcher who gave up no homers all season is 10 starts, by Vern Ruhle, former Mets pitching coach and recently deceased, who did it for the Astros in 1978 while throwing 68 innings, including the 10 starts plus three relief appearances. I would have thought that Ruhle was helped by pitching in the Astrodome, always a very tough place to hit homers, but in fact 8 of his 10 starts and 47 of his 68 total IPs that season were on the road.
Most Starts by a Met Pitcher in a Season in Which He Gave up 0 HRs:
Pedro Martinez 2007, 5 starts
Ron Darling 1983, 5 starts
Ed Lynch 1980, 4 starts
Pedro's 5 starts in a homer-free season is the most such starts in the majors since 1998, when John Halama of Seattle had 6 starts in a homer-free season. Going all the way back to 1900, the pitcher who had the most starts in a single season in which he gave up zero home runs was ... Babe Ruth! In 1916, the 21-year-old Babe had 41 starts, including 23 complete games, plus three relief appearances, for a total of 323 and two-thirds innings pitched, and surrendered not one home run all season. As a hitter he had 3 homers in 136 ABs that season. 1916 was certainly not a big year for home runs. That same season, Walter Johnson pitched even more innings than Ruth (38 starts, 36 complete games, 10 relief appearances and 369 and two-thirds innings altogether) and also allowed zero homers. All together there were 144 homers hit in the American League that season, a number topped by 10 of the 14 AL teams in 2007.
Since 1945, the most starts in a season by a pitcher who gave up no homers all season is 10 starts, by Vern Ruhle, former Mets pitching coach and recently deceased, who did it for the Astros in 1978 while throwing 68 innings, including the 10 starts plus three relief appearances. I would have thought that Ruhle was helped by pitching in the Astrodome, always a very tough place to hit homers, but in fact 8 of his 10 starts and 47 of his 68 total IPs that season were on the road.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Little Credit
Terry Francona's regular season winning percentage as manager of the Red Sox (the last four seasons) has been .579.
Grady Little's regular season winning percentage as manager of the Red Sox (the two seasons immediately before Francona) was .580.
Grady Little's regular season winning percentage as manager of the Dodgers was .525. Tommy Lasorda's was .526.
Among the 225 managers all-time who have managed at least 500 regular season MLB games, Grady Little is 30th in lifetime winning percentage with a .552 percentage. He is immediately behind Billy Martin at .553, and ahead of luminaries such as Sparky Anderson (.545), Mike Scioscia (.542), Tony LaRussa (.534), Whitey Herzog (.532), Tommy Lasorda (.526) and Joe Torre (.539).
Grady Little's regular season winning percentage as manager of the Red Sox (the two seasons immediately before Francona) was .580.
Grady Little's regular season winning percentage as manager of the Dodgers was .525. Tommy Lasorda's was .526.
Among the 225 managers all-time who have managed at least 500 regular season MLB games, Grady Little is 30th in lifetime winning percentage with a .552 percentage. He is immediately behind Billy Martin at .553, and ahead of luminaries such as Sparky Anderson (.545), Mike Scioscia (.542), Tony LaRussa (.534), Whitey Herzog (.532), Tommy Lasorda (.526) and Joe Torre (.539).
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Some Guys Named Joe
Most MLB Games Played At Catcher, Guys named Joe:
Joe Girardi 1247
Joe Oliver 1033
Joe Torre 903
Joe Azcue 868
Joe Ferguson 766
Joe Sugden 708
Joe Garagiola 614
Joe Ginsburg 574
Joe Girardi 1247
Joe Oliver 1033
Joe Torre 903
Joe Azcue 868
Joe Ferguson 766
Joe Sugden 708
Joe Garagiola 614
Joe Ginsburg 574
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