Thursday, October 4, 2007

The Real MVP

In 2007, for the first time in the 46 seasons since the Mets joined the majors, the Mets had the player with the most Win Shares in a full National League season. Win Shares is a Bill James-developed stat that attempts to reflect all aspects of a player's performance (including batting, base-running, fielding and pitching) on a single uniform scale reflecting the player's total contribution to his team's wins. Baseball Prospectus does something similar called WARP (Wins Over Replacement Player), and I've put the 2007 WARP numbers for each of the top 10 NL Win Shares players below in parentheses

Top 10 NL Win Shares in 2007:
David Wright 34 (13.2)
Albert Pujols 32 (12.5)
Miguel Cabrera 30 (10.9)
Matt Holliday 30 (12.1)
Hanley Ramirez 29 (10.5)
Chase Utley 28 (11.0)
Jimmy Rollins 28 (11.7)
Prince Fielder 28 (8.0)
Adrian Gonzalez 27 (9.2)
Carlos Beltran 27 (9.5)

No surprise that A-Rod led the AL in Win Shares. He had 39 -- the most Win Shares in a season in the AL since Frank Thomas ten years ago (1987). Jose Reyes was 16th in Win Shares in the NL this season.

2007 Win Shares numbers are courtesy of The Hardball Times:
http://http//www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=total&direction=DESC&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=NL&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit

Other seasons besides 2007 in which the Mets have had more than one player in the NL Win Shares Top 10:
1969 Tom Seaver 6th and Cleon Jones 9th
1984 Keith Hernandez 3rd and Darryl Strawberry 10th
1985 Gary Carter 4th and Dwight Gooden 5th1
988 Kevin McReynolds 3rd and Darryl Strawberry 5th
1997 Edgardo Alfonzo 8th and John Olerud 10th
1999 Robin Ventura 5th and Edgardo Alfonzo 6th
2000 Edgardo Alfonzo 2nd and Mike Piazza 10th
2006 Carlos Beltran 2nd, David Wright 5th and Jose Reyes 8th
2007 David Wright 1st and Carlos Beltran 9th

The all-time highest single season Win Shares totals for a Mets player:
Carlos Beltran 2006 38.3
Howard Johnson 1989 38.0
Edgardo Alfonzo 2000 35.5
David Wright 2007 34.4
John Olerud 1998 33.5
Gary Carter 1985 33.3
Dwight Gooden 1985 32.9
Keith Hernandez 1984 32.7
Tom Seaver 1971 32.4
Tom Seaver 1969 32.2

Historical Win Shares stats are produced using Dave Studeman's database downloadable here:
ftp://ftp.baseballgraphs.com/winshares

No comments: