Thursday, October 18, 2007

Dude, Where's My Home Run

A nice entry over at the Stat-of-the-Day blog, on come-from-behind walkoff hits in the post season, is here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/366 . The most interesting realization I took from this entry was that there have been three, and only three, walkoff home runs in post-season history that took the hitter's team from trailing in the game to sudden victory. The three saving dingers include two of the most famous home runs in all baseball history and one that (besides being the first come-from-behind walkoff homer ever in a post-season game) should be even more famous among Met fans than it is already. Going backwards in time, the three big homers are:
--Joe Carter, Blue Jays, ending not just Game 6 but the 1993 World Series against the Phillies.
--Kirk Gibson, Dodgers, doing his Willis Reed thing in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series against the A's.
--Leonard K. Dykstra (never did seem like a "Leonard" did he?) for the Mets in Game 3 of the 1986 NLCS, homering off Houston's Dave Smith, with Wally Backman on second base, one out in the bottom of the 9th, transforming a game the Mets were trailing 5-4 into a 6-5 win.

Most Post-Season Home Runs by a Met:
5, Mike Piazza
4, Dykstra, Strawberry, Staub, Alfonzo, Delgado

Dykstra had only 30 career regular season homers for the Mets, in 1,908 PAs (one every 63.6 PAs). His 4 post-season homers as a Met came in 76 PAs (one every 19 PAs). Then he went to the Phillies and had 6 post-season homers (he's the all-time Phillies career leader in post-season homers) in only 60 PAs That was one HR for every 10 post season PAs, while in the regular season for the Phils he hit homers no more frequently than he had for the Mets, one homer every 66.2 regular season PAs for Philadelphia.

Dykstra's overall post-season HR rate of one homer per 13.6 post-season PAs is Mark McGwire/Babe Ruth territory -- McGwire and Ruth together averaged about one homer per 14 PAs in their regular season careers.

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