The Red Sox, in addition to winning the World Series, had the best regular season winning percentage in the majors (tied with Cleveland) and the most net runs (runs scored over runs allowed, or to put it another way, the most "expected" wins) in the majors.
This triple crown -- World Series champion, most actual wins, most expected win -- isn't achieved very often, at least not anymore. From 1990 to 2007 (17 seasons, nt including 1994 when the WS was cancelled) only two teams won the World Series and also led the majors in both wins and expected wins: this year's Red Sox and the 1998 Yankees. Three teams from the 1980s earned this triple crown: the 1989 (earthquake Series) A's, the Mets in 1986 and the Tigers in 1984.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Monday, October 29, 2007
The Shorter the Better?
The 2007 World Series was the fourth World Series in a row that took fewer than 6 games. The previous time, and the only other time, that there were 4 straight World Series completed in fewer than six games was in the years 1913, 1914, 1915 and 1916. Oddly, the Red Sox won two of those World Series as well (1915 and 1916). And the Boston Braves won the only World Series they would ever win as a Boston team in that same sequence (1914). Between 1918 and 2004, the Red Sox played in four World Series, all of them nice long seven-game thrillers and they lost every one. The Red Sox should never sponsor the Boston Marathon.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Unexpected Sources
2 or more RBIs in the World Series by an AL pitcher since the inception of the DH:
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston, 2007 Game 3
Chad Ogea, Cleveland 1997 Game 6
Mike Moore, Oakland, 1989 Game 4
World Series RBIs by Mets Pitchers:
Jesse Orosco, 1986 Game 7, bottom of the 8th. After pitching a scoreless 7th in the final game of the '86 Series, Roger McDowell could get nobody out in the top of the 8th, surrendering three straight hits and two runs, as the Red Sox moved from down 6-3 to down 6-5. Orosco came in and got three straight outs, allowing no more runs to score. Then in the bottom of the 8th, Darryl Strawberry led off with a homer and after Ray Knight singled and moved to second on a Dykstra groundout, Jesse singled to center to bring in an additional insurance run before pitching a flawless three up, three down 9th inning. That was the 11th and final hit of Orosco's career, although he was a major leaguer for another 17 seasons thereafter.
Gary Gentry, 1969, Game 3, bottom of the second. Tommie Agee put the Mets up 1-0 with a leadoff homer, off future Hall-of-Famer Jim Palmer, to start the bottom of the first inning. In the second Gentry came up with two outs and Jerry Grote and Bud Harrelson on base. Gentry doubled off Palmer deep into the gap in right center to drive in two runs. The Mets never looked back and won the game 5-0 on 6 and two thirds innings of three-hit ball from Gentry and two and a third innings of one-hit ball from Nolan Ryan. Gentry's double was one of only five extra base hits of his MLB career. His career regular season batting average was .095 and his career regular season slugging percentage was .109. The only other 2-RBI game of Gentry's career came against another future Hall-of-Famer, when he doubled to drive in two off Phil Niekro in a regular season game in 1972.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston, 2007 Game 3
Chad Ogea, Cleveland 1997 Game 6
Mike Moore, Oakland, 1989 Game 4
World Series RBIs by Mets Pitchers:
Jesse Orosco, 1986 Game 7, bottom of the 8th. After pitching a scoreless 7th in the final game of the '86 Series, Roger McDowell could get nobody out in the top of the 8th, surrendering three straight hits and two runs, as the Red Sox moved from down 6-3 to down 6-5. Orosco came in and got three straight outs, allowing no more runs to score. Then in the bottom of the 8th, Darryl Strawberry led off with a homer and after Ray Knight singled and moved to second on a Dykstra groundout, Jesse singled to center to bring in an additional insurance run before pitching a flawless three up, three down 9th inning. That was the 11th and final hit of Orosco's career, although he was a major leaguer for another 17 seasons thereafter.
Gary Gentry, 1969, Game 3, bottom of the second. Tommie Agee put the Mets up 1-0 with a leadoff homer, off future Hall-of-Famer Jim Palmer, to start the bottom of the first inning. In the second Gentry came up with two outs and Jerry Grote and Bud Harrelson on base. Gentry doubled off Palmer deep into the gap in right center to drive in two runs. The Mets never looked back and won the game 5-0 on 6 and two thirds innings of three-hit ball from Gentry and two and a third innings of one-hit ball from Nolan Ryan. Gentry's double was one of only five extra base hits of his MLB career. His career regular season batting average was .095 and his career regular season slugging percentage was .109. The only other 2-RBI game of Gentry's career came against another future Hall-of-Famer, when he doubled to drive in two off Phil Niekro in a regular season game in 1972.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Great Expectations, And Others
A baseball team's won-loss record over a full season usually has a close relationship to the difference between runs scored over runs allowed ("net runs"). This seems like a pretty common-sensical observation, since the way a team wins a game is by scoring more runs than its opponent. When Bill James almost 30 years ago nicknamed the general arithmetical relationship over a season between won-loss record and net runs as the "Pythagorean" win expectation formula, he made it sound more evocative of high school geometry class than it really is. Unlike in that geometry class, there are no elaborate logical proofs behind baseball's "Pythagorean" formula. Baseball's Pythagorean formula is just plain old arithmetic -- if you look at all the seasons by all the teams in baseball history, it just so happens that they tend to end up a season with a winning percentage about equal to the square of the team's runs scored divided by the sum of the square of the team's runs scored plus the square of the team's runs allowed.
Bill James recently posted a spreadsheet that includes, among other things, every major league team's winning percentage for every season since 1876, along with its Pythagorean win expectation (Bill now uses a slight variation on the formula, with a slightly different exponent replacing the simple "2" designated by the "squared" part of the formula, but that is a very minor technicality). Of 2,516 team-seasons since 1876, only 242 resulted in more than 5 wins above the Pythagorean expectation. So less than 10% of all teams exceed their Pythagorean win expectation by more than 5 wins.
Of those 242 teams, 236 had a "next season" (2007 teams obviously have no "next season" yet, and 19th century teams sometimes went out of business before they could have a "next season") but only 26 of them could repeat the feat of winning more than 5 games above expectation, again less than 10% of the teams. That suggests that winning more games than Pythagorean-expectation is not really a repeatable skill, and is largely just luck (Bill James has found, however, that the most extreme overperforming teams, such as the D-Backs this season, may have some amount of a repeatable skill). By the way, winning itself is a repeatable skill: of the 316 teams in history that have had a greater than .600 winning percentage and who had a "next season", 134 repeated the feat in that next season, and those 316 teams that finished over .600 averaged a .582 winning percentage in their next season.
All this being an elaborate introduction to pointing out the oddity that although Mets seasons represent only 46 of the 2,516 team seasons that have been played in history (about 1 Mets season for every 55 team-seasons in history), the Mets have had two of the ten most Pythagorean-overperforming teams of all time, as well as the single most underperforming team of all time:
-- The 1984 Mets, Davey Johnson's first Mets team, gave up 676 runs while scoring only 652, yet somehow managed to finish with 90 wins and 72 losses. That's the fourth biggest Pythagorean overperformance of all time. The 2007 D-Backs, by the way, were the ninth biggest Pythagorean overperformers of all time.
-- The 1972 Mets, the first Mets team with Yogi Berra as manager, gave up 50 more runs than they scored in a slightly strike-shortened season, but still managed to finish 10 games over .500 anyway, the ninth biggest Pythagorean overperformance ever.
-- And then there is the astounding 1993 Mets team, managed first by Jeff Torborg and then Dallas Green. This club was not good, but was actually competitive. Their runs scored and runs given up predict a 73 or 74 win season, not good, but that should not have produced anything grotesquely bad. By hook or by crook, however, this team finished a horrible 59-103, the fourth worst record in the majors in the 1990s and the largest single Pythagorean underperformance, and the largest variation from the Pythagorean expectation of any kind, up or down, in baseball history.
Bill James recently posted a spreadsheet that includes, among other things, every major league team's winning percentage for every season since 1876, along with its Pythagorean win expectation (Bill now uses a slight variation on the formula, with a slightly different exponent replacing the simple "2" designated by the "squared" part of the formula, but that is a very minor technicality). Of 2,516 team-seasons since 1876, only 242 resulted in more than 5 wins above the Pythagorean expectation. So less than 10% of all teams exceed their Pythagorean win expectation by more than 5 wins.
Of those 242 teams, 236 had a "next season" (2007 teams obviously have no "next season" yet, and 19th century teams sometimes went out of business before they could have a "next season") but only 26 of them could repeat the feat of winning more than 5 games above expectation, again less than 10% of the teams. That suggests that winning more games than Pythagorean-expectation is not really a repeatable skill, and is largely just luck (Bill James has found, however, that the most extreme overperforming teams, such as the D-Backs this season, may have some amount of a repeatable skill). By the way, winning itself is a repeatable skill: of the 316 teams in history that have had a greater than .600 winning percentage and who had a "next season", 134 repeated the feat in that next season, and those 316 teams that finished over .600 averaged a .582 winning percentage in their next season.
All this being an elaborate introduction to pointing out the oddity that although Mets seasons represent only 46 of the 2,516 team seasons that have been played in history (about 1 Mets season for every 55 team-seasons in history), the Mets have had two of the ten most Pythagorean-overperforming teams of all time, as well as the single most underperforming team of all time:
-- The 1984 Mets, Davey Johnson's first Mets team, gave up 676 runs while scoring only 652, yet somehow managed to finish with 90 wins and 72 losses. That's the fourth biggest Pythagorean overperformance of all time. The 2007 D-Backs, by the way, were the ninth biggest Pythagorean overperformers of all time.
-- The 1972 Mets, the first Mets team with Yogi Berra as manager, gave up 50 more runs than they scored in a slightly strike-shortened season, but still managed to finish 10 games over .500 anyway, the ninth biggest Pythagorean overperformance ever.
-- And then there is the astounding 1993 Mets team, managed first by Jeff Torborg and then Dallas Green. This club was not good, but was actually competitive. Their runs scored and runs given up predict a 73 or 74 win season, not good, but that should not have produced anything grotesquely bad. By hook or by crook, however, this team finished a horrible 59-103, the fourth worst record in the majors in the 1990s and the largest single Pythagorean underperformance, and the largest variation from the Pythagorean expectation of any kind, up or down, in baseball history.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Beltran Through 30
Carlos Beltran has 250 career stolen bases through his age 30 season, which he just completed. That is the 69th all-time highest number for a player through his age 30 season. He also has 236 career homers, which is the 62nd all-time highest number for a player through his age 30 season. Beltran and Barry Bonds are the only two players in history in the top 70 on both those through-age-30 lists.
Barry Bonds had 292 homers through the 1995 season (his "age 30 season", as he was 30 years old on July 1 that year). 292 homers puts him 24th all-time in most career homers through an age 30 season. A-Rod is #1 all-time, with 464 homers through the 2006 season, which was his age 30 season.
Top 5 career homers through their age 30 season:
1. A-Rod 464
2. Griffey, Jr. 438
3. Foxx 429
4. Mantle 404
5. Eddie Mathews 399
Other active players with high numbers:
Andruw Jones 368 (he just completed his age 30 season)
Vlad Guerrero 338 (2006 was his age 30 season)
Sammy Sosa 336
Manny Ramirez 310
Hank Aaron had 366 homers through his age 30 season and Babe Ruth had 309.
Barry Bonds had 292 homers through the 1995 season (his "age 30 season", as he was 30 years old on July 1 that year). 292 homers puts him 24th all-time in most career homers through an age 30 season. A-Rod is #1 all-time, with 464 homers through the 2006 season, which was his age 30 season.
Top 5 career homers through their age 30 season:
1. A-Rod 464
2. Griffey, Jr. 438
3. Foxx 429
4. Mantle 404
5. Eddie Mathews 399
Other active players with high numbers:
Andruw Jones 368 (he just completed his age 30 season)
Vlad Guerrero 338 (2006 was his age 30 season)
Sammy Sosa 336
Manny Ramirez 310
Hank Aaron had 366 homers through his age 30 season and Babe Ruth had 309.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
When Tough Parks Happen to Good Pitchers
Fenway was just as much a hitter's park this season as Coors Field.
There were an average of 10.18 combined runs per game scored in Red Sox games at Fenway, compared to 8.65 in Red Sox away games, a difference of 1.53 runs a game.
There were an average of 10.66 combined runs per game scored in Rockies games at Coors, compared to 9.19 in Rockies away games, a difference of 1.47 runs a game.
The large Fenway advantage for hitters leads us to underestimate Bosox pitchers.
Fewest runs per road game given up by an AL team in the last 15 regular seasons:
White Sox 2005, 3.73 runs per game given up
Red Sox 2007, 3.75 runs per game given up
Red Sox 2002, 3.85 runs per game given up
Orioles 1994, 3.95 runs per game given up
A's 2002, 3.99 runs per game given up
There were an average of 10.18 combined runs per game scored in Red Sox games at Fenway, compared to 8.65 in Red Sox away games, a difference of 1.53 runs a game.
There were an average of 10.66 combined runs per game scored in Rockies games at Coors, compared to 9.19 in Rockies away games, a difference of 1.47 runs a game.
The large Fenway advantage for hitters leads us to underestimate Bosox pitchers.
Fewest runs per road game given up by an AL team in the last 15 regular seasons:
White Sox 2005, 3.73 runs per game given up
Red Sox 2007, 3.75 runs per game given up
Red Sox 2002, 3.85 runs per game given up
Orioles 1994, 3.95 runs per game given up
A's 2002, 3.99 runs per game given up
Monday, October 22, 2007
Torre Class Reunion
Most Career Homers by a Player Born in 1940:
1. Willie Stargell 475
2. Ron Santo 342
3. Joe Torre 252
4. Joe Pepitone 219
5. Willie Davis 182
1. Willie Stargell 475
2. Ron Santo 342
3. Joe Torre 252
4. Joe Pepitone 219
5. Willie Davis 182
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Decisive
Tonight is the 52nd Game 7 in post-season history. There have been 51 previous leadoff Plate Appearances in Game Sevens, but only 50 game-ending Plate Appearances in Game Sevens. The missing game-ending PA is from the infamous 1926 Game 7 when Babe Ruth was caught stealing to end the season for the Yankees and give the Series to the Cardinals. Bob Meusel, at the plate at the time, is not credited with a PA.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Torre of the Mets
Most home runs as a Met by a player who also went on to manage the Mets:
Joe Torre 12
Gil Hodges 9
Bud Harrelson 6
Roy McMillan 3
Willie Randolph 2
Bobby Valentine 2
Mike Cubbage 1
Of the 18 men who have served as manager of the Mets (either permanent or interim), nine also played for the Mets and nine did not. In addition to the seven above, Yogi Berra and Dallas Green also played for the Mets, but in each case only played in four games as a Met. Green and George Bamberger were the only major league pitchers to go on to manage the Mets. Every Mets manager thus far has played at least a little bit of major league baseball. Torre's first season as Mets manager was one of the few stints by anyone over the last 50 years as a player-manager (Pete Rose 1984-86, Don Kessinger 1979, Torre 1977, Frank Robinson 1975-76, El Tappe 1962, Hank Bauer 1961, Solly Hemus 1959).
Joe Torre 12
Gil Hodges 9
Bud Harrelson 6
Roy McMillan 3
Willie Randolph 2
Bobby Valentine 2
Mike Cubbage 1
Of the 18 men who have served as manager of the Mets (either permanent or interim), nine also played for the Mets and nine did not. In addition to the seven above, Yogi Berra and Dallas Green also played for the Mets, but in each case only played in four games as a Met. Green and George Bamberger were the only major league pitchers to go on to manage the Mets. Every Mets manager thus far has played at least a little bit of major league baseball. Torre's first season as Mets manager was one of the few stints by anyone over the last 50 years as a player-manager (Pete Rose 1984-86, Don Kessinger 1979, Torre 1977, Frank Robinson 1975-76, El Tappe 1962, Hank Bauer 1961, Solly Hemus 1959).
Friday, October 19, 2007
Long Waits and Short
The last time each of the 16 "original" franchises (the ones that date back to at least 1901) won a World Series:
AL
Indians 1948
Orioles 1983
Tigers 1984
A's 1989
Twins 1991
Yankees 2000
Red Sox 2004
White Sox 2005
NL
Cubs 1908
Giants 1954
Pirates 1979
Phillies 1980
Dodgers 1988
Reds 1990
Braves 1995
Cardinals 2006
AL
Indians 1948
Orioles 1983
Tigers 1984
A's 1989
Twins 1991
Yankees 2000
Red Sox 2004
White Sox 2005
NL
Cubs 1908
Giants 1954
Pirates 1979
Phillies 1980
Dodgers 1988
Reds 1990
Braves 1995
Cardinals 2006
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Dude, Where's My Home Run
A nice entry over at the Stat-of-the-Day blog, on come-from-behind walkoff hits in the post season, is here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/366 . The most interesting realization I took from this entry was that there have been three, and only three, walkoff home runs in post-season history that took the hitter's team from trailing in the game to sudden victory. The three saving dingers include two of the most famous home runs in all baseball history and one that (besides being the first come-from-behind walkoff homer ever in a post-season game) should be even more famous among Met fans than it is already. Going backwards in time, the three big homers are:
--Joe Carter, Blue Jays, ending not just Game 6 but the 1993 World Series against the Phillies.
--Kirk Gibson, Dodgers, doing his Willis Reed thing in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series against the A's.
--Leonard K. Dykstra (never did seem like a "Leonard" did he?) for the Mets in Game 3 of the 1986 NLCS, homering off Houston's Dave Smith, with Wally Backman on second base, one out in the bottom of the 9th, transforming a game the Mets were trailing 5-4 into a 6-5 win.
Most Post-Season Home Runs by a Met:
5, Mike Piazza
4, Dykstra, Strawberry, Staub, Alfonzo, Delgado
Dykstra had only 30 career regular season homers for the Mets, in 1,908 PAs (one every 63.6 PAs). His 4 post-season homers as a Met came in 76 PAs (one every 19 PAs). Then he went to the Phillies and had 6 post-season homers (he's the all-time Phillies career leader in post-season homers) in only 60 PAs That was one HR for every 10 post season PAs, while in the regular season for the Phils he hit homers no more frequently than he had for the Mets, one homer every 66.2 regular season PAs for Philadelphia.
Dykstra's overall post-season HR rate of one homer per 13.6 post-season PAs is Mark McGwire/Babe Ruth territory -- McGwire and Ruth together averaged about one homer per 14 PAs in their regular season careers.
--Joe Carter, Blue Jays, ending not just Game 6 but the 1993 World Series against the Phillies.
--Kirk Gibson, Dodgers, doing his Willis Reed thing in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series against the A's.
--Leonard K. Dykstra (never did seem like a "Leonard" did he?) for the Mets in Game 3 of the 1986 NLCS, homering off Houston's Dave Smith, with Wally Backman on second base, one out in the bottom of the 9th, transforming a game the Mets were trailing 5-4 into a 6-5 win.
Most Post-Season Home Runs by a Met:
5, Mike Piazza
4, Dykstra, Strawberry, Staub, Alfonzo, Delgado
Dykstra had only 30 career regular season homers for the Mets, in 1,908 PAs (one every 63.6 PAs). His 4 post-season homers as a Met came in 76 PAs (one every 19 PAs). Then he went to the Phillies and had 6 post-season homers (he's the all-time Phillies career leader in post-season homers) in only 60 PAs That was one HR for every 10 post season PAs, while in the regular season for the Phils he hit homers no more frequently than he had for the Mets, one homer every 66.2 regular season PAs for Philadelphia.
Dykstra's overall post-season HR rate of one homer per 13.6 post-season PAs is Mark McGwire/Babe Ruth territory -- McGwire and Ruth together averaged about one homer per 14 PAs in their regular season careers.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Walk, Run
In the first two games of the Boston-Cleveland series, Manny Ramirez walked three times with the bases loaded. That is more bases loaded walks than any player has ever had in the post-season in a career. Only six men had previously had more than one career post-season walk with the bases loaded. These last three for Manny were his second, third and fourth (Bartolo Colon walked him with the bases full while pitching for the Angels in a 2004 ALDS).
The only other man with 2 RBI walks in a single post-season game was, of all people, Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer. In Game Two of the 1971 World Series, the Pirates brought Bruce Kison in to pitch in the bottom of the fourth inning, with men already on first and second for the Orioles. Kison proceeded to walk Mark Belanger, the fine fielding shortstop who didn't hit much better than a pitcher, to load the bases, and then walked Palmer to force in a run.
The very next inning, the Pirates again found themselves with men on first and second, again with Belanger in the 8th spot in the order coming up, and again the Bucs brought in a new pitcher, this time veteran Bob Veale. Veale followed completed the instant deja vu by walking Belanger to load the bases and Palmer to force in a run, just as Kison had done a few minutes before. The Pirates lost that game (no surprise!) to fall behind in the Series 2 games to none, but came back to win the next three games and then the Series in 7 (I was a Mets fan living in Pittsburgh at the time, and being surrounded by triumphant Pirate fans that year was not fun). Cleveland seems to be overcoming the string of RBI walks to Manny Ramirez, as well as the Pirates overcame the walks to Palmer.
I was a Mets fan living in Pittsburgh at the time, and being surrounded by triumphant Pirate fans that year was not fun.
The only other man with 2 RBI walks in a single post-season game was, of all people, Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer. In Game Two of the 1971 World Series, the Pirates brought Bruce Kison in to pitch in the bottom of the fourth inning, with men already on first and second for the Orioles. Kison proceeded to walk Mark Belanger, the fine fielding shortstop who didn't hit much better than a pitcher, to load the bases, and then walked Palmer to force in a run.
The very next inning, the Pirates again found themselves with men on first and second, again with Belanger in the 8th spot in the order coming up, and again the Bucs brought in a new pitcher, this time veteran Bob Veale. Veale followed completed the instant deja vu by walking Belanger to load the bases and Palmer to force in a run, just as Kison had done a few minutes before. The Pirates lost that game (no surprise!) to fall behind in the Series 2 games to none, but came back to win the next three games and then the Series in 7 (I was a Mets fan living in Pittsburgh at the time, and being surrounded by triumphant Pirate fans that year was not fun). Cleveland seems to be overcoming the string of RBI walks to Manny Ramirez, as well as the Pirates overcame the walks to Palmer.
I was a Mets fan living in Pittsburgh at the time, and being surrounded by triumphant Pirate fans that year was not fun.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Stranger Ranger Idea?
The new rumor is that the Mets are considering Rudy Jaramillo, the Texas Rangers' long-time hitting coach, to replace Howard Johnson as the Mets hitting coach.
After adjusting for the fact that Texas plays in a very hitting-friendly home park, the Rangers as a team have hit below league average in four of the last five years; and in the eight seasons of the 00s (20000 through 2007) the Rangers hitting as a team has been below average 5 times, average once and above average twice. Jaramillo's reputation is seriously inflated by the Texas ballpark.
Team OPS+ for Texas (100 is league average, adjusted for home park):
2000: 97
2001: 113
2002: 100
2003: 97
2004: 94
2005: 106
2006: 99
2007: 95
2000s overall average: 100
Now let's compare the Mets' OPS in 2007 before HoJo was named as hitting coach (July 13) to the period after he took over:
Mets OPS before Hojo: .753
Mets OPS after Hojo: .800
(NL average for the season was .757)
Of course, that's a very small sample, and may have absolutely nothing to do with HoJo, but with that result, why would you want to replace him with Jaramillo, whose numbers in recent years have been underwhelming?
(source for OPS and OPS+ numbers: baseball-reference.com)
After adjusting for the fact that Texas plays in a very hitting-friendly home park, the Rangers as a team have hit below league average in four of the last five years; and in the eight seasons of the 00s (20000 through 2007) the Rangers hitting as a team has been below average 5 times, average once and above average twice. Jaramillo's reputation is seriously inflated by the Texas ballpark.
Team OPS+ for Texas (100 is league average, adjusted for home park):
2000: 97
2001: 113
2002: 100
2003: 97
2004: 94
2005: 106
2006: 99
2007: 95
2000s overall average: 100
Now let's compare the Mets' OPS in 2007 before HoJo was named as hitting coach (July 13) to the period after he took over:
Mets OPS before Hojo: .753
Mets OPS after Hojo: .800
(NL average for the season was .757)
Of course, that's a very small sample, and may have absolutely nothing to do with HoJo, but with that result, why would you want to replace him with Jaramillo, whose numbers in recent years have been underwhelming?
(source for OPS and OPS+ numbers: baseball-reference.com)
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Shea Hey Kids
The average number of runs scored in a game at Shea Stadium during the 2006 season (both teams combined) was 9.16.
The average number of runs scored in a game at Shea Stadium during the 2007 season (both teams combined) was 9.17.
The average number of runs scored in Mets road games during the 2006 season (both teams combined) was 10.16, exactly 1.00 run more than the 9.16 runs scored in Mets home games in 2006.
The average number of runs scored in Mets road games during the 2007 season (both teams combined) was 10.02, 0.85 more runs than the 9.17 runs scored in Mets home games in 2007.
In 2006, that exactly 1.00 run more scored on average in Met road games than in Met home games was divided almost evenly between higher scoring by the Mets and higher scoring by their opponents. The Mets scored 0.54 more runs in their road games than in their home games, and Mets opponents scored 0.46 more runs per game when playing the Mets away from Shea than in games at Shea. In short, in 2006, Shea was consistently and reliably tougher to hit in than most parks, with scoring by each team lower by about half a run per game on average at shea than in an average park.
In 2007, the 0.85 more runs scored on average in Met road games than in Met home games consisted entirely of higher scoring on the road by the Mets themselves. Mets batters in 2007 averaged 0.87 more runs per game on the road than Shea. But Mets pitchers actually allowed a tiny number of runs fewer on the road than at Shea -- Mets opponents averaged 0.02 fewer runs per game in games against the Mets away from Shea as compared to games at Shea.
So to summarize, in 2006 Shea was consistently a tough park to hit in, basically equally so for the Mets and their oponents. In 2007, Shea was still a tough park to hit in -- but only for the Mets (for whom it was even tougher than in 2006). For Mets opponents, Shea was a neutral park for hitting in 2007.
The average number of runs scored in a game at Shea Stadium during the 2007 season (both teams combined) was 9.17.
The average number of runs scored in Mets road games during the 2006 season (both teams combined) was 10.16, exactly 1.00 run more than the 9.16 runs scored in Mets home games in 2006.
The average number of runs scored in Mets road games during the 2007 season (both teams combined) was 10.02, 0.85 more runs than the 9.17 runs scored in Mets home games in 2007.
In 2006, that exactly 1.00 run more scored on average in Met road games than in Met home games was divided almost evenly between higher scoring by the Mets and higher scoring by their opponents. The Mets scored 0.54 more runs in their road games than in their home games, and Mets opponents scored 0.46 more runs per game when playing the Mets away from Shea than in games at Shea. In short, in 2006, Shea was consistently and reliably tougher to hit in than most parks, with scoring by each team lower by about half a run per game on average at shea than in an average park.
In 2007, the 0.85 more runs scored on average in Met road games than in Met home games consisted entirely of higher scoring on the road by the Mets themselves. Mets batters in 2007 averaged 0.87 more runs per game on the road than Shea. But Mets pitchers actually allowed a tiny number of runs fewer on the road than at Shea -- Mets opponents averaged 0.02 fewer runs per game in games against the Mets away from Shea as compared to games at Shea.
So to summarize, in 2006 Shea was consistently a tough park to hit in, basically equally so for the Mets and their oponents. In 2007, Shea was still a tough park to hit in -- but only for the Mets (for whom it was even tougher than in 2006). For Mets opponents, Shea was a neutral park for hitting in 2007.
Friday, October 12, 2007
ALCS 2007: The Usual Suspects
Over the last 15 seasons (1993-2007) the top 4 teams in the majors in aggregate regular season winning percentage are:
Yankees .598
Braves .594
Red Sox .549
Indians .543
The Mets are 14th in the majors with a .501 regular season winning percentage overall over the last 15 years: 1183 win and 1179 losses, the closest of any team to exactly .500 over this period. The bottom 4 teams in winning percentage over the last 15 years include, unsurprisingly, Tampa, KC and Pittsburgh, all of whom were in last place again this season, plus Detroit, which has come out of a long swoon the last two years.
Over this 15 year period, the Mets "Pythagorean" expectation, the number of wins they would normally have expected to win based on the number of runs they scored and gave up, is about 22 wins higher than they actually won, or about a game and half fewer wins per year on average than they would be normally have been expected to win. To put it another way, the Mets, based on their runs scored and runs surrendered, would have been expected to have a .510 winning percentage over the past 15 seasons rather than a .501 percentage. Not much difference there, and that is the largest underperformance by any team in the majors over that time period. The largest overperformance (more actual wins than expected based on runs scored and runs surrendered) was by the Yankees, who won 42 more games over the past 15 years than their "Pythagorean" expectation predicted, almost three a season on average. This was the largest overperformance of any team over the last 15 years, by a large margin.
technical note: there are slight variations in the Pythagorean expectation formula among different sabermetricians -- here I'm using the formula from baseball-reference.com, which is the simplest in use, i. e., the original one developed by Bill James: expected wins equals runs scored squared, divided by the sum of runs scored squared plus runs allowed squared.
Yankees .598
Braves .594
Red Sox .549
Indians .543
The Mets are 14th in the majors with a .501 regular season winning percentage overall over the last 15 years: 1183 win and 1179 losses, the closest of any team to exactly .500 over this period. The bottom 4 teams in winning percentage over the last 15 years include, unsurprisingly, Tampa, KC and Pittsburgh, all of whom were in last place again this season, plus Detroit, which has come out of a long swoon the last two years.
Over this 15 year period, the Mets "Pythagorean" expectation, the number of wins they would normally have expected to win based on the number of runs they scored and gave up, is about 22 wins higher than they actually won, or about a game and half fewer wins per year on average than they would be normally have been expected to win. To put it another way, the Mets, based on their runs scored and runs surrendered, would have been expected to have a .510 winning percentage over the past 15 seasons rather than a .501 percentage. Not much difference there, and that is the largest underperformance by any team in the majors over that time period. The largest overperformance (more actual wins than expected based on runs scored and runs surrendered) was by the Yankees, who won 42 more games over the past 15 years than their "Pythagorean" expectation predicted, almost three a season on average. This was the largest overperformance of any team over the last 15 years, by a large margin.
technical note: there are slight variations in the Pythagorean expectation formula among different sabermetricians -- here I'm using the formula from baseball-reference.com, which is the simplest in use, i. e., the original one developed by Bill James: expected wins equals runs scored squared, divided by the sum of runs scored squared plus runs allowed squared.
Low-Flying Byrd
Paul Byrd, whose solid if unspectacular start for the Indians just knocked the Yankees out of the playoffs, and maybe a future Hall of Fame manger out of a job, spent his first two seasons in the majors with the Mets. Byrd has had a solid if unspectacular career, nearing 100 wins and with a career ERA of 4.35 in an environment where the average ERA has been 4.54. That translates into what baseball-reference calls an ERA+ of 104, that is, just a bit above the average. which is always calibrated at 100. Under the right circumstances a pitcher with a 104 ERA+ can do quite well for himself. The most career wins by pitchers with a career ERA+ of exactly 104:
Catfish Hunter 224
Mickey Lolich 217
Claude Osteen 196
Catfish Hunter 224
Mickey Lolich 217
Claude Osteen 196
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Autumn-atic
Most Consecutive Post-Season Games With At Least One Time On Base:
Boog Powell 25 games
Lou Gehrig 23 games
Rickey Henderson 22 games
Joe Morgan 22 games
Barry Bonds 21 games
Carlos Beltran 20 games
Beltran's 20 game streak is active -- it runs through the end of last season's NLCS and can be extended next time Beltran appears in a post-season game. The longest such currently active streak among players still playing in this season's post-season is the 11-game streak of David Ortiz, so Ortiz could theoretically tie Boog's record if (1) the Red Sox get to the Series, (2) both the ALCS and the Series go 7 games, and (3) Ortiz reaches base in every game.
Boog Powell 25 games
Lou Gehrig 23 games
Rickey Henderson 22 games
Joe Morgan 22 games
Barry Bonds 21 games
Carlos Beltran 20 games
Beltran's 20 game streak is active -- it runs through the end of last season's NLCS and can be extended next time Beltran appears in a post-season game. The longest such currently active streak among players still playing in this season's post-season is the 11-game streak of David Ortiz, so Ortiz could theoretically tie Boog's record if (1) the Red Sox get to the Series, (2) both the ALCS and the Series go 7 games, and (3) Ortiz reaches base in every game.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Last Call
Tom Glavine was 13-8 for the Mets this season. If he retires before next season, his 13 wins would be far the most last-season wins for pitcher who pitches his final MLB game as a Met:
Randy Jones, a former Padres star, pitched for the Mets in his last two seasons and won 7 games for the Mets in his final MLB year.
Randy Tate won 5 games for the Mets in 1975, his one and only season in the majors. Randy was by one measure the worst batter in the history of baseball. He had 41 ABs in his career and not a single hit -- that's the most ABs by any batter in history who had 0 hits. He did have a caught stealing though -- after reaching base on an error. On the mound he wasn't terrible, and it's not clear why he never got another chance after 23 starts for the Mets at the tender age of 22.
Bob Friend won 5 games for the Mets in 1966 after the Mets bought him from the Yankees in June that season, following a fine 15-season career with the Pirates (4th on the Pirates' all-time career win list).
Bob Apodaca won 4 games (and saved 5) for the 1977 Mets at age 27. An excellent reliever for the Mets (a sparkling 1.49 ERA in 1975), arm injuries prevented him from pitching in the majors after that 1977 season. Hardly ready to leave baseball, Bob became a pitching coach in the Mets farm system, and worked with Clint Hurdle when Clint had great success as a minor league manager in Mets organization. It was widely assumed that Hurdle would manage the Mets big league club someday, but it was Apodoca who made it to the Mets as their pitching coach from 1996 to 1999. Maybe the Mets should have kept him -- he's Clint Hurdle's pitching coach in Colorado in this week's National League Championship Series.
Three other guys -- Mardie Cornejo, Mike Bruhert and Joe Crawford -- each pitched his last major league game for the Mets and each had 4 wins for the Mets in their final season. In each of these three cases, that last MLB season was also the only MLB season.
Randy Jones, a former Padres star, pitched for the Mets in his last two seasons and won 7 games for the Mets in his final MLB year.
Randy Tate won 5 games for the Mets in 1975, his one and only season in the majors. Randy was by one measure the worst batter in the history of baseball. He had 41 ABs in his career and not a single hit -- that's the most ABs by any batter in history who had 0 hits. He did have a caught stealing though -- after reaching base on an error. On the mound he wasn't terrible, and it's not clear why he never got another chance after 23 starts for the Mets at the tender age of 22.
Bob Friend won 5 games for the Mets in 1966 after the Mets bought him from the Yankees in June that season, following a fine 15-season career with the Pirates (4th on the Pirates' all-time career win list).
Bob Apodaca won 4 games (and saved 5) for the 1977 Mets at age 27. An excellent reliever for the Mets (a sparkling 1.49 ERA in 1975), arm injuries prevented him from pitching in the majors after that 1977 season. Hardly ready to leave baseball, Bob became a pitching coach in the Mets farm system, and worked with Clint Hurdle when Clint had great success as a minor league manager in Mets organization. It was widely assumed that Hurdle would manage the Mets big league club someday, but it was Apodoca who made it to the Mets as their pitching coach from 1996 to 1999. Maybe the Mets should have kept him -- he's Clint Hurdle's pitching coach in Colorado in this week's National League Championship Series.
Three other guys -- Mardie Cornejo, Mike Bruhert and Joe Crawford -- each pitched his last major league game for the Mets and each had 4 wins for the Mets in their final season. In each of these three cases, that last MLB season was also the only MLB season.
Dynastic History
The Yankees franchise, including its two years as the Batimore Orioles in 1901-1902 before it moved to New York, has played 107 seasons. The franchise has qualified for the post-season 47 times and failed to qualify for the post-season 60 times. The Yankees' total, regular season winning percentage, over the entire 107 seasons, is .567. Their winning percentage over all 340 post-season games they have played (202 wins, 137 losses and one tie)n is .596. Their regular season winning percentage over the 47 seasons in which they made the post-season is .627. Their winning percentage over the 60 seasons in which they did not make the post-season is .519. Their regular season winning percentage under Joe Torre has been .605, their winning percentage in the post-season (76 wins and 47 losses) has been .618.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Rockie Road
For Mets fans, one of the eye-catching events of this year's short-lived NL Division Series play (the Year of the Mountain Time Zone teams, "peaking" at the right time) was former Met Kaz Matsui's grand slam in Game 2 of the Rockies-Phillies series.
Matsui's grand slam was the 6th by a second baseman in post-season history. Previous ones were :
-Tony Lazzeri, Yankees 1936 World Series vs. Giants
-Gil McDougald Yankees 1951 World Series vs. Giants
-Bobby Richardson Yankees 1960 World Series vs. Pirates (Richardson had 1 homer in 460 ABs and a .298 SLG in the 1960 regular season)
-Chuck Hiller Giants 1962 World Series vs. Yankees
-Edgardo Alfonzo Mets 1999 Division Series vs. D-Backs (Game 1, scored tied in the top of the ninth, two outs, Ventura on third, Ordonez on second and Rickey Henderson on first after hitting into a fielders' choice play at home for the second out).
Matsui also had a near-cycle (a "tricycle"?) in that game, with a double, triple and homer. That particular combination has been done in the post-season only once before, by Lou Brock in Game 4 of the 1968 World Series. Other three-out-of-four combos in the post-season:
The single-double-triple combination has been done 23 times in the post-season, never by a Met but three times against the Mets: Reggie Jackson in Game 2 of the 1973 World Series, Mike Marshall in the 1988 NLCS, and Paul O'Neill in Game 3 of the 2000 World Series.
The single-triple-homer combination has been done 11 times in the post-season, never by or against the Mets.
The single-double-homer combination has been done 82 times in the post-season, three times by the Mets, and twice against them:
--Cleon Jones and Tommie Agee had this combination on successive days, in Games 2 and 3 of the 1969 NLCS versus the Braves
--Kevin McReynolds had 1B/2B/HR day in Game 6 of the 1988 NLCS
--Johnny Bench had a single, double and homer against the Mets in Game 1 the 1973 NLCS
--Jeff Kent's post-season single/double/homer combo came in Game 3 of last year's Mets-Dodgers Division Series.
Perhaps the oddest near-cycle game in post-season history was in Game 2 of the thrilling 1912 World Series. Red Murray and Buck Herzog of the New York Giants, both had single-double-triple days that day -- but the Giants could only manage a 6-6, eleven inning tie game against the Red Sox, called on account of darkness after both teams had scored a run in the tenth and gone scoreless in the 11th. Because of the tie game, and evenly matched play throughout the series, the 1912 World Series had to go to an eighth game before being decided. In that final game the Giants took the lead in the top of the tenth, and had the great Christy Mathewson on the mound, having given up only one run all game and none since the third inning. But in the bottom of the tenth a dropped fly ball by Fred Snodgrass, the Bill Buckner of his time (except on the other side in a NY-Boston Series), led to two unearned runs for Boston, costing the Giants the championship.
Matsui's grand slam was the 6th by a second baseman in post-season history. Previous ones were :
-Tony Lazzeri, Yankees 1936 World Series vs. Giants
-Gil McDougald Yankees 1951 World Series vs. Giants
-Bobby Richardson Yankees 1960 World Series vs. Pirates (Richardson had 1 homer in 460 ABs and a .298 SLG in the 1960 regular season)
-Chuck Hiller Giants 1962 World Series vs. Yankees
-Edgardo Alfonzo Mets 1999 Division Series vs. D-Backs (Game 1, scored tied in the top of the ninth, two outs, Ventura on third, Ordonez on second and Rickey Henderson on first after hitting into a fielders' choice play at home for the second out).
Matsui also had a near-cycle (a "tricycle"?) in that game, with a double, triple and homer. That particular combination has been done in the post-season only once before, by Lou Brock in Game 4 of the 1968 World Series. Other three-out-of-four combos in the post-season:
The single-double-triple combination has been done 23 times in the post-season, never by a Met but three times against the Mets: Reggie Jackson in Game 2 of the 1973 World Series, Mike Marshall in the 1988 NLCS, and Paul O'Neill in Game 3 of the 2000 World Series.
The single-triple-homer combination has been done 11 times in the post-season, never by or against the Mets.
The single-double-homer combination has been done 82 times in the post-season, three times by the Mets, and twice against them:
--Cleon Jones and Tommie Agee had this combination on successive days, in Games 2 and 3 of the 1969 NLCS versus the Braves
--Kevin McReynolds had 1B/2B/HR day in Game 6 of the 1988 NLCS
--Johnny Bench had a single, double and homer against the Mets in Game 1 the 1973 NLCS
--Jeff Kent's post-season single/double/homer combo came in Game 3 of last year's Mets-Dodgers Division Series.
Perhaps the oddest near-cycle game in post-season history was in Game 2 of the thrilling 1912 World Series. Red Murray and Buck Herzog of the New York Giants, both had single-double-triple days that day -- but the Giants could only manage a 6-6, eleven inning tie game against the Red Sox, called on account of darkness after both teams had scored a run in the tenth and gone scoreless in the 11th. Because of the tie game, and evenly matched play throughout the series, the 1912 World Series had to go to an eighth game before being decided. In that final game the Giants took the lead in the top of the tenth, and had the great Christy Mathewson on the mound, having given up only one run all game and none since the third inning. But in the bottom of the tenth a dropped fly ball by Fred Snodgrass, the Bill Buckner of his time (except on the other side in a NY-Boston Series), led to two unearned runs for Boston, costing the Giants the championship.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Privileges of Seniority
Although the sixteen franchises that date from or before the 1901 establishment of the American League as a major league now constititute only about half of the 30 major league teams, there has never been a World Series without at least one of those 16 old-line franchises participating. By defeating the Angels today, the Red Sox assured that the old-line tradition will continue at least another year.
Of the 8 franchises founded in the 1960s, only the Mets, Royals and Angels have been World Champions, the Mets twice. The Padres, Nationals, Brewers, Rangers and Astros all have yet to win a World Series. Indeed, the Pods, Nats, 'Stros and Rangers franchises have collectively played 167 seasons (not counting 1994 when no World Series was played) and among them have exactly one win in a World Series game -- I don't mean one World Series, I mean one, single, solitary World Series game, San Diego's Game 2 victory over the Tigers in 1984. The Padres and Astros are collectively one win and twelve losses in World Series games, while the Nats and Rangers have not even played in a World Series despite 84 seasons (that were followed by post-season games) between them. And Mets fans think they have problems.
Of the 8 franchises founded in the 1960s, only the Mets, Royals and Angels have been World Champions, the Mets twice. The Padres, Nationals, Brewers, Rangers and Astros all have yet to win a World Series. Indeed, the Pods, Nats, 'Stros and Rangers franchises have collectively played 167 seasons (not counting 1994 when no World Series was played) and among them have exactly one win in a World Series game -- I don't mean one World Series, I mean one, single, solitary World Series game, San Diego's Game 2 victory over the Tigers in 1984. The Padres and Astros are collectively one win and twelve losses in World Series games, while the Nats and Rangers have not even played in a World Series despite 84 seasons (that were followed by post-season games) between them. And Mets fans think they have problems.
Out of Order
Tony LaRussa received quite a bit of attention this season by batting his pitchers in the 8th slot in the order, a move sabermetric studies suggest may have added a tiny bit of offensive value for the team (this study suggests LaRussa may not have gone far enough and should have been putting his pitchers in the 7th slot to achieve another tiny bit more offensive value: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-larussa-right-to-bat-his-pitcher-in-the-eight-slot/).
For the record, Cardinals pitchers in 2007 batted in spots other than the 9th spot in the order in 124 of 325 plate appearances (38% of the time).
On the diametrically opposite side, the Mets in 2007, for the first time in their history, went a complete season without a single plate appearance by a pitcher in a batting order slot other than the 9th spot. The only other year that happened in Mets history was 1981, but 1981 was a labor dispute year in which the Mets played only 103 games. Every other Mets season has had at least one, and often at least a handful and sometimes more, of PAs in which a double switch puts the pitcher in a batting order slot other than 9th and the pitcher ends up coming up to bat. The most times that happened was in the Mets winningest season of all, 1986, when Mets pitchers came up to bat 14 times in batting order slots other than the 9th spot, and Roger McDowell alone had 8 PAs in slots other than the 9th spot.
Hat tip to baseball-reference.com's Play Index Event Finder, which enables cross-searches of PAs by both fielding position and batting order spot, by team and season.
For the record, Cardinals pitchers in 2007 batted in spots other than the 9th spot in the order in 124 of 325 plate appearances (38% of the time).
On the diametrically opposite side, the Mets in 2007, for the first time in their history, went a complete season without a single plate appearance by a pitcher in a batting order slot other than the 9th spot. The only other year that happened in Mets history was 1981, but 1981 was a labor dispute year in which the Mets played only 103 games. Every other Mets season has had at least one, and often at least a handful and sometimes more, of PAs in which a double switch puts the pitcher in a batting order slot other than 9th and the pitcher ends up coming up to bat. The most times that happened was in the Mets winningest season of all, 1986, when Mets pitchers came up to bat 14 times in batting order slots other than the 9th spot, and Roger McDowell alone had 8 PAs in slots other than the 9th spot.
Hat tip to baseball-reference.com's Play Index Event Finder, which enables cross-searches of PAs by both fielding position and batting order spot, by team and season.
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Twinned Stars
Prior to this season, Miguel Cabrera was a step ahead of David Wright in terms of batting performance, in the competition between the two young NL East third basemen both of whom have been performing at levels that put them among the top young third basemen ever (DW is about 4 months older than Cabrera). But in 2007, David moved his hitting up another notch and matched Miguel to the extent their hitting numbers were nearly identical.
Wright 2007: .416 OBP, .546 SLG, .962 OPS
Cabrera 2007: .401 OBP, .565 SLG, .966 OPS
Which of course puts Wright definitively ahead in terms of value at the moment, based on his advantages over Cabrera on the bases and in the field.
Players in Age 24 Year, Playing Most of Their Games at Third Base, Highest OPS+:
Richie Allen (1966) OPS+ 181
Ron Santo (1964) OPS+ 164
Jim Thome (1995) OPS+ 158
Mike Schmidt (1974) OPS+ 158
Miguel Cabrera (2007) OPS+ 152
David Wright (2007) OPS+ 152
OPS+, developed and calculated by baseball-reference.com is based on a scale in which 100 = the league average OBP+SLG in a neutral home park.
Wright 2007: .416 OBP, .546 SLG, .962 OPS
Cabrera 2007: .401 OBP, .565 SLG, .966 OPS
Which of course puts Wright definitively ahead in terms of value at the moment, based on his advantages over Cabrera on the bases and in the field.
Players in Age 24 Year, Playing Most of Their Games at Third Base, Highest OPS+:
Richie Allen (1966) OPS+ 181
Ron Santo (1964) OPS+ 164
Jim Thome (1995) OPS+ 158
Mike Schmidt (1974) OPS+ 158
Miguel Cabrera (2007) OPS+ 152
David Wright (2007) OPS+ 152
OPS+, developed and calculated by baseball-reference.com is based on a scale in which 100 = the league average OBP+SLG in a neutral home park.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Post-Season Shutouts,etc.
I'm sure Mets fans are amused to find that the last 4 complete game shutouts in major league post-season games (dating back to 2003) include three by Josh Beckett and one by a pitcher who later pitched for the Mets -- Jose Lima.
The Mets have had three post-season complete game shutouts thrown for them: Mike Hampton against the Cards in 2000, Bobby Jones against the Giants in 2000 (I was lucky enough to be at Shea for that one) and Jon Matlack against the Reds in 1973. The Mets shut out the Cards in the playoffs last season, but it was not a complete game -- Glavine, Mota and Wagner combined to pitch that one. The other combined shutouts for the Mets in the post-season are Game 5 of the 1973 World Series (Koosman and McGraw, with Tug pitching the last two and two-thirds innings) and Game 3 of the 1969 World Series (Gary Gentry and Nolan Ryan).
Interesting that Tom Seaver never had a post-season game in which he gave up no runs (his post-season pitching performance overall was nearly identical in performance to his regular season career performance -- 3 wins and two losses with a 2.77 ERA in the post-season, compared to a .603 regular season winning percentage and 2.86 regular season ERA). Seaver pitched one post-season game in which he gave up only one run -- the classic Game 4 of the 1969 World Series in which he pitched a ten-inning complete game win, with the Orioles' only run coming in the ninth on two singles and a sac fly. That's the game the Mets won in the tenth on J.C. Martin's walk-off bunt (Martin was pinch-hitting for Seaver) when relief pitcher Pete Richert's throw to first base hit Martin running up the line (O's fans claim it was interference), allowing the winning run to score.
Martin's bunt was one of three walk-off sac bunts in post-season history, along with Charlie Hayes for the Yankees against the Rangers in 1996 and Herbie Moran of the Boston Braves in Game 3 of the 1914 World Series against the A's. The A's were swept by the Braves in that 1914 Series, managing only 6 runs in the four games after having won three of the previous four World Series, one of the games being (to bring us back to the original theme of this entry) a 1-0 shutout by Braves pitcher Bill James. Having been swept in the Series, the A's went on to finished dead last in the AL for the next seven seasons in a row -- that was some devastating walkoff sac bunt.
The Mets have had three post-season complete game shutouts thrown for them: Mike Hampton against the Cards in 2000, Bobby Jones against the Giants in 2000 (I was lucky enough to be at Shea for that one) and Jon Matlack against the Reds in 1973. The Mets shut out the Cards in the playoffs last season, but it was not a complete game -- Glavine, Mota and Wagner combined to pitch that one. The other combined shutouts for the Mets in the post-season are Game 5 of the 1973 World Series (Koosman and McGraw, with Tug pitching the last two and two-thirds innings) and Game 3 of the 1969 World Series (Gary Gentry and Nolan Ryan).
Interesting that Tom Seaver never had a post-season game in which he gave up no runs (his post-season pitching performance overall was nearly identical in performance to his regular season career performance -- 3 wins and two losses with a 2.77 ERA in the post-season, compared to a .603 regular season winning percentage and 2.86 regular season ERA). Seaver pitched one post-season game in which he gave up only one run -- the classic Game 4 of the 1969 World Series in which he pitched a ten-inning complete game win, with the Orioles' only run coming in the ninth on two singles and a sac fly. That's the game the Mets won in the tenth on J.C. Martin's walk-off bunt (Martin was pinch-hitting for Seaver) when relief pitcher Pete Richert's throw to first base hit Martin running up the line (O's fans claim it was interference), allowing the winning run to score.
Martin's bunt was one of three walk-off sac bunts in post-season history, along with Charlie Hayes for the Yankees against the Rangers in 1996 and Herbie Moran of the Boston Braves in Game 3 of the 1914 World Series against the A's. The A's were swept by the Braves in that 1914 Series, managing only 6 runs in the four games after having won three of the previous four World Series, one of the games being (to bring us back to the original theme of this entry) a 1-0 shutout by Braves pitcher Bill James. Having been swept in the Series, the A's went on to finished dead last in the AL for the next seven seasons in a row -- that was some devastating walkoff sac bunt.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
The Real MVP
In 2007, for the first time in the 46 seasons since the Mets joined the majors, the Mets had the player with the most Win Shares in a full National League season. Win Shares is a Bill James-developed stat that attempts to reflect all aspects of a player's performance (including batting, base-running, fielding and pitching) on a single uniform scale reflecting the player's total contribution to his team's wins. Baseball Prospectus does something similar called WARP (Wins Over Replacement Player), and I've put the 2007 WARP numbers for each of the top 10 NL Win Shares players below in parentheses
Top 10 NL Win Shares in 2007:
David Wright 34 (13.2)
Albert Pujols 32 (12.5)
Miguel Cabrera 30 (10.9)
Matt Holliday 30 (12.1)
Hanley Ramirez 29 (10.5)
Chase Utley 28 (11.0)
Jimmy Rollins 28 (11.7)
Prince Fielder 28 (8.0)
Adrian Gonzalez 27 (9.2)
Carlos Beltran 27 (9.5)
No surprise that A-Rod led the AL in Win Shares. He had 39 -- the most Win Shares in a season in the AL since Frank Thomas ten years ago (1987). Jose Reyes was 16th in Win Shares in the NL this season.
2007 Win Shares numbers are courtesy of The Hardball Times:
http://http//www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=total&direction=DESC&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=NL&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit
Other seasons besides 2007 in which the Mets have had more than one player in the NL Win Shares Top 10:
1969 Tom Seaver 6th and Cleon Jones 9th
1984 Keith Hernandez 3rd and Darryl Strawberry 10th
1985 Gary Carter 4th and Dwight Gooden 5th1
988 Kevin McReynolds 3rd and Darryl Strawberry 5th
1997 Edgardo Alfonzo 8th and John Olerud 10th
1999 Robin Ventura 5th and Edgardo Alfonzo 6th
2000 Edgardo Alfonzo 2nd and Mike Piazza 10th
2006 Carlos Beltran 2nd, David Wright 5th and Jose Reyes 8th
2007 David Wright 1st and Carlos Beltran 9th
The all-time highest single season Win Shares totals for a Mets player:
Carlos Beltran 2006 38.3
Howard Johnson 1989 38.0
Edgardo Alfonzo 2000 35.5
David Wright 2007 34.4
John Olerud 1998 33.5
Gary Carter 1985 33.3
Dwight Gooden 1985 32.9
Keith Hernandez 1984 32.7
Tom Seaver 1971 32.4
Tom Seaver 1969 32.2
Historical Win Shares stats are produced using Dave Studeman's database downloadable here:
ftp://ftp.baseballgraphs.com/winshares
Top 10 NL Win Shares in 2007:
David Wright 34 (13.2)
Albert Pujols 32 (12.5)
Miguel Cabrera 30 (10.9)
Matt Holliday 30 (12.1)
Hanley Ramirez 29 (10.5)
Chase Utley 28 (11.0)
Jimmy Rollins 28 (11.7)
Prince Fielder 28 (8.0)
Adrian Gonzalez 27 (9.2)
Carlos Beltran 27 (9.5)
No surprise that A-Rod led the AL in Win Shares. He had 39 -- the most Win Shares in a season in the AL since Frank Thomas ten years ago (1987). Jose Reyes was 16th in Win Shares in the NL this season.
2007 Win Shares numbers are courtesy of The Hardball Times:
http://http//www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=total&direction=DESC&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=NL&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit
Other seasons besides 2007 in which the Mets have had more than one player in the NL Win Shares Top 10:
1969 Tom Seaver 6th and Cleon Jones 9th
1984 Keith Hernandez 3rd and Darryl Strawberry 10th
1985 Gary Carter 4th and Dwight Gooden 5th1
988 Kevin McReynolds 3rd and Darryl Strawberry 5th
1997 Edgardo Alfonzo 8th and John Olerud 10th
1999 Robin Ventura 5th and Edgardo Alfonzo 6th
2000 Edgardo Alfonzo 2nd and Mike Piazza 10th
2006 Carlos Beltran 2nd, David Wright 5th and Jose Reyes 8th
2007 David Wright 1st and Carlos Beltran 9th
The all-time highest single season Win Shares totals for a Mets player:
Carlos Beltran 2006 38.3
Howard Johnson 1989 38.0
Edgardo Alfonzo 2000 35.5
David Wright 2007 34.4
John Olerud 1998 33.5
Gary Carter 1985 33.3
Dwight Gooden 1985 32.9
Keith Hernandez 1984 32.7
Tom Seaver 1971 32.4
Tom Seaver 1969 32.2
Historical Win Shares stats are produced using Dave Studeman's database downloadable here:
ftp://ftp.baseballgraphs.com/winshares
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
How Bad the Collapse?
Over at Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver uses BP's postseason odds report system to analyze which teams in baseball history had the highest probability, at some point in the regular season, of getting to the post-season but ultimately failed: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6764
The Mets sudden collapse this September ranks second all-time using this methodology, because on September 12 they had a 99.8% probability of making the playoffs and failed -- only the 1995 Angels, with a 99.99 probability on August 12 that season rank higher in the collapse category.
But having cited Silver's article, I'm not sure if this method quite captures the right sense of a spectacular collapse, a sense I didn't really feel this season with the Mets, not quite in the way that, say, Dodgers fans apparently felt in 1951.
I would hypothesize that this lack of a sense of a truly spectacular fold has to do with the lack of a long period during which the Mets dominated this season before falling apart. Yes, the Mets were up 7 with 17 games to go and couldn't hold the lead, an unprecedented fall from that particular spot. But the Mets were not dominant in the NL East this season -- it's not as if they had the division under control all year only to lose it in the end. Quite the opposite: The Mets were shadowed almost all season by the Phillies and Braves, briefly expanding their lead late to a momentary 7 games before falling back again and ultimately blowing the last of the lead at the worst moment. That's not quite what I think of when I think of a spectacular late season collapse.
To quantify my instinct here, I calculated the average games in or behind first place the Mets held after each game this season (so if after a day of games the Mets were in first by 2 games I counted that as +2, and if they were two games out of first I counted it as -2. Using this method, the Mets' averaged 2.4 games in first place during the 2007 season. By comparison, the 1951 Dodgers averaged 3.6 games in first place and the 1969 Cubs 3.4 games in first place. Using Nate Silver's maximum probability measure, both these teams fell short of the Mets collapse, but that's just a single game comparison in a long season. My averaging method may be a better approach to measuring a team's level of dominance across the season before falling short, and may indicate why the '51 Dodgers and '69 Cubs seem subjectively more shocking examples of collapse than the Mets of 2007.
The Mets sudden collapse this September ranks second all-time using this methodology, because on September 12 they had a 99.8% probability of making the playoffs and failed -- only the 1995 Angels, with a 99.99 probability on August 12 that season rank higher in the collapse category.
But having cited Silver's article, I'm not sure if this method quite captures the right sense of a spectacular collapse, a sense I didn't really feel this season with the Mets, not quite in the way that, say, Dodgers fans apparently felt in 1951.
I would hypothesize that this lack of a sense of a truly spectacular fold has to do with the lack of a long period during which the Mets dominated this season before falling apart. Yes, the Mets were up 7 with 17 games to go and couldn't hold the lead, an unprecedented fall from that particular spot. But the Mets were not dominant in the NL East this season -- it's not as if they had the division under control all year only to lose it in the end. Quite the opposite: The Mets were shadowed almost all season by the Phillies and Braves, briefly expanding their lead late to a momentary 7 games before falling back again and ultimately blowing the last of the lead at the worst moment. That's not quite what I think of when I think of a spectacular late season collapse.
To quantify my instinct here, I calculated the average games in or behind first place the Mets held after each game this season (so if after a day of games the Mets were in first by 2 games I counted that as +2, and if they were two games out of first I counted it as -2. Using this method, the Mets' averaged 2.4 games in first place during the 2007 season. By comparison, the 1951 Dodgers averaged 3.6 games in first place and the 1969 Cubs 3.4 games in first place. Using Nate Silver's maximum probability measure, both these teams fell short of the Mets collapse, but that's just a single game comparison in a long season. My averaging method may be a better approach to measuring a team's level of dominance across the season before falling short, and may indicate why the '51 Dodgers and '69 Cubs seem subjectively more shocking examples of collapse than the Mets of 2007.
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