Over at baseball-reference.com's Stat of the Day, a new study shows that 53% of of the Mets' 2007 plate apearances were from players born in Latin American countries, compared to 24% in the majors generally, and that 30% of the Mets' innnings pitched were thrown by pitchers born in Latin American countries, compared to 18% in the majors.
I think that, consciously or not, Omar is taking the same approach to Hispanic-heritage players that Oakland's general manager Billy Beane took during the "Moneyball" years to types of players the market seemed to undervalue a bit. In Beane's case he loooked for players who walked a lot, for college prospects instead of high school prospects, for sidearm pitchers, and players in other categories that the market seemd to undervalue at the time. For Minaya, I think he believes, and he may well be quite right, that in many cases between an American born player and an Hispanic player of equal talent, the market will undervalue the Hispanic player a bit and there is thus sometimes a market opportunity there.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Nolan and Paquin
Mets fans with a taste for trivia may remember the name Frank Estrada, who was part of one of the most infamous trades in Mets or baseball history. On December 10, 1971, Estrada, Don Rose and the young, flame-throwing pitcher Nolan Ryan were traded for the perennial All-Star shortstop Jim Fregosi. Fregosi failed to play for the Mets at his prior level of performance, while Ryan went on to pitch for more seasons than anyone in baseball history, obliterating records for most career no-hiters and total strikeouts and establishing standards for these categories that seem unchallengable.
The career of Frank Estrada (or rather Francisco Estrada, or Paquin, his Mexican League nickname) might seem, if you just checked his major league stats, the exact opposite of Ryan's unprecedentedly prolific career. Estrada, brought up to the Mets from the minors late in the 1971 season entered the first game of a double header at Shea against the Expos, on September 14, 1971. He replaced Jerry Grote behind the plate with the Mets trailing 12 to 0 in the top of the sixth. When the Expos' fifth batter of the inning came up, he allowed his first and last major league passed ball. Estrada, who was 23 years old, came up for his first major league at bat in the seventh with two outs and nobody on -- he knocked a single to left. In the botom of the 9th he came up again with two outs, the Mets still trailing 12-0, and grounded out to end the game (everybody in the park but Frank was probably rooting for an out). He never played in the majors again -- finishing his MLB career with a .500 batting average and 1 passed ball in four innings caught.
Estrada's sounds like an obscure career but his life in baseball has actually turned out much more like that of Nolan Ryan's than most fans are likely aware. Indeed, Paquin Estrada has had one of the most illustrious careers in the long history of the Mexican proessional baseball, catching more games than anyone in the history of the Meican leagues, or indeed more games than anyone in the minor leagues, in the US or Mexico. Nolan Ryan pitched in an astounding 27 seasons in the US major leagues, from 1966 to 1993, missing only 1967 during that span. Yet the man he was traded with, Franscisco Estrada, was playing professionally in the top Mexican leagues in 1966 and he actually went Ryan one year better -- Estrada's final season as a player was 1994! And Estrada has continued to play a huge role in Mexican baseball, as a top manager for many, many years, winning numerous titles. The Mexican national team that knocked the US team out of the 2006 World Baseball Classic was managed by none other than Paquin Estrada. He's a distinguished member of the Mexican Baseball Hall of Fame, and the current manager of the Chihuahua Dorados. I wonder if Nolan Ryan, who was born in southern Texas about a three hour drive from the Mexican border, has met Estrada since they were ever so briefly on the Mets together more than 36 years ago.
Ricardo Rincon was recently signed by the Mets to a minor league contract, with a chance to compete this spring for a chance at making the big club. Rincon would be the fifth Mets pitcher in history born in Mexico. Ollie Perez was the fourth, after Armando Reynoso, Juan Acevedo and Rigo Beltran. (The 1997 and 1998 Pirates, by the way, each had five pitchers from Mexico in a single season, including Rincon in his first two seasons in the majors). The Mets have had only three position players born in Mexico: Alex Trevino, Karim Garcia and, the Mexican-born player to play for the Mets, the catcher by the name of Francisco Estrada who went on to the Ryanesque career in his native country.
The career of Frank Estrada (or rather Francisco Estrada, or Paquin, his Mexican League nickname) might seem, if you just checked his major league stats, the exact opposite of Ryan's unprecedentedly prolific career. Estrada, brought up to the Mets from the minors late in the 1971 season entered the first game of a double header at Shea against the Expos, on September 14, 1971. He replaced Jerry Grote behind the plate with the Mets trailing 12 to 0 in the top of the sixth. When the Expos' fifth batter of the inning came up, he allowed his first and last major league passed ball. Estrada, who was 23 years old, came up for his first major league at bat in the seventh with two outs and nobody on -- he knocked a single to left. In the botom of the 9th he came up again with two outs, the Mets still trailing 12-0, and grounded out to end the game (everybody in the park but Frank was probably rooting for an out). He never played in the majors again -- finishing his MLB career with a .500 batting average and 1 passed ball in four innings caught.
Estrada's sounds like an obscure career but his life in baseball has actually turned out much more like that of Nolan Ryan's than most fans are likely aware. Indeed, Paquin Estrada has had one of the most illustrious careers in the long history of the Mexican proessional baseball, catching more games than anyone in the history of the Meican leagues, or indeed more games than anyone in the minor leagues, in the US or Mexico. Nolan Ryan pitched in an astounding 27 seasons in the US major leagues, from 1966 to 1993, missing only 1967 during that span. Yet the man he was traded with, Franscisco Estrada, was playing professionally in the top Mexican leagues in 1966 and he actually went Ryan one year better -- Estrada's final season as a player was 1994! And Estrada has continued to play a huge role in Mexican baseball, as a top manager for many, many years, winning numerous titles. The Mexican national team that knocked the US team out of the 2006 World Baseball Classic was managed by none other than Paquin Estrada. He's a distinguished member of the Mexican Baseball Hall of Fame, and the current manager of the Chihuahua Dorados. I wonder if Nolan Ryan, who was born in southern Texas about a three hour drive from the Mexican border, has met Estrada since they were ever so briefly on the Mets together more than 36 years ago.
Ricardo Rincon was recently signed by the Mets to a minor league contract, with a chance to compete this spring for a chance at making the big club. Rincon would be the fifth Mets pitcher in history born in Mexico. Ollie Perez was the fourth, after Armando Reynoso, Juan Acevedo and Rigo Beltran. (The 1997 and 1998 Pirates, by the way, each had five pitchers from Mexico in a single season, including Rincon in his first two seasons in the majors). The Mets have had only three position players born in Mexico: Alex Trevino, Karim Garcia and, the Mexican-born player to play for the Mets, the catcher by the name of Francisco Estrada who went on to the Ryanesque career in his native country.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Just A Bit of Home
Since 1964, when Shea Stadium opened, the Mets have had an overall winning percentage at home of .519, 24th among the 30 franchises during that period (for franchises younger than the Mets, I just use their entire franchise history to rank them), and way below the total .538 percentage in home games that all major league teams combined have averaged since 1964.
But over the same period the Mets, since 1964 have been just slightly below average when they play as the visiting team. In away games since 1964 the Mets have had a winning percentage of .456, 18th among the 30 teams in the majors but in a virtual tie for 16th (the Mets, Phils and Tigers all have exactly 1,594 road wins since 1964, the Tigers have one fewer road loss than the Mets in that period and the Phillies three fewer road losses).
What these numbers add up to is that the Mets since 1964 have had one of the very weakest home field advantages in the majors. With a .063 difference between home winning percentage and road winning percentage, the Mets find themselves ahead of only three of the 30 franchises in strength of home field since 1964. Only the Braves, Reds and Orioles have had less of a gap between their home and road records since 1964. The average gap for all teams is .076, so the Mets' gap of .063 is quite low. The Rockies have the largest home vs road gap by far, at .155. Baltimore has the lowest gap at .041.
The Orioles are, along with the Yankees, one of only two franchises to have a road record over .500 since 1964 . But unlike the Yankees, who also have the best home record since 1964, the O's have had a home record that is only a bit above average.
But over the same period the Mets, since 1964 have been just slightly below average when they play as the visiting team. In away games since 1964 the Mets have had a winning percentage of .456, 18th among the 30 teams in the majors but in a virtual tie for 16th (the Mets, Phils and Tigers all have exactly 1,594 road wins since 1964, the Tigers have one fewer road loss than the Mets in that period and the Phillies three fewer road losses).
What these numbers add up to is that the Mets since 1964 have had one of the very weakest home field advantages in the majors. With a .063 difference between home winning percentage and road winning percentage, the Mets find themselves ahead of only three of the 30 franchises in strength of home field since 1964. Only the Braves, Reds and Orioles have had less of a gap between their home and road records since 1964. The average gap for all teams is .076, so the Mets' gap of .063 is quite low. The Rockies have the largest home vs road gap by far, at .155. Baltimore has the lowest gap at .041.
The Orioles are, along with the Yankees, one of only two franchises to have a road record over .500 since 1964 . But unlike the Yankees, who also have the best home record since 1964, the O's have had a home record that is only a bit above average.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Puffed Rice
Jim Rice came extremely close to being elected to the Hall of Fame this past week. With 72.2% of voters including him in their selections, he fell just short of the 75% needed. Historically, coming that close has almost always meant a player is eventually elected.
An item of interest to Mets fans is that modern sabermetric statistics show Moises Alou (through 2007) and Jim Rice to have had careers of almost identical value.
Career Win Shares (Bill James stat that tries to reflect a player's total contribution to team wins on both offense and defense)
Jim Rice: 282
Moises Alou: 282
Career WARP1 (Baseball Prospectus' "Wins Over Replacement Player", it also includes both offense and defensive contributions)
Jim Rice: 72.1
Moises Alou: 72.6
Career OPS+ (Baseball-reference.com's stat adjusting OPS for home park effects and for different historical eras, with average=100)
Jim Rice: 128
Moises Alou: 128
An item of interest to Mets fans is that modern sabermetric statistics show Moises Alou (through 2007) and Jim Rice to have had careers of almost identical value.
Career Win Shares (Bill James stat that tries to reflect a player's total contribution to team wins on both offense and defense)
Jim Rice: 282
Moises Alou: 282
Career WARP1 (Baseball Prospectus' "Wins Over Replacement Player", it also includes both offense and defensive contributions)
Jim Rice: 72.1
Moises Alou: 72.6
Career OPS+ (Baseball-reference.com's stat adjusting OPS for home park effects and for different historical eras, with average=100)
Jim Rice: 128
Moises Alou: 128
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Primary Education
OK, today everyone is watching New Hampshire, birthplace of only one New York Met ever, Don Florence, whose entire major league career consisted of pitching 14 games for the Mets in 1995. Florence has another claim to fame as a Met -- you can make the case he has the best winning percentage of any Mets pitcher in history, if you don't require any minimum number of decisions:
Most Career Wins as a Mets Pitcher, among pitchers with zero losses as a Met
Don Florence: 3 Wins, 0 Losses
Bartolome Fortunato, Barry Jones, John Candelaria and Jim Bethke: 2 Wins, 0 Losses
No major leaguer born in New Hampshire has ever been inducted in the Hall of Fame. Best major leaguers born in New Hampshire:
--Arlie Latham, 221 Win Shares. Latham was one of the more popular players of the 19th century among fans. He was a prolific base stealer who hit for a good average and played third base for many years when that was a very tough position to play (lots of bunting, plus inferior gloves for fielding those wicked line drives). He was very famous as an entertainer, eccentric and overall kook on the field and off (he is credited for, among other innovations, starting the tradition of chattering encouragement to the pitcher from the infield).
--Red Rolfe, 162 Win Shares. Rolfe was the All-Star third basemen for the great, great Yankee teams of the late 1930s, late in Gehrig's career and early in DiMaggio's (Rolfe was 6 years younger than Gehrig and six years older than DiMaggio).
--Mike Flanagan, 158 Win Shares -- the popular Orioles pitcher and more recently an executive in the O's front office.
Among active MLB players born in New Hampshire the leading light is Chris Carpenter with 91 career Win Shares. Chad Paronto has 10 career Win Shares and Brian Wilson (not the Beach Boy) has 5 career Win Shares. Other New Hampshire natives who have played major league ball since 1945 and that current fans might remember are Bob Tewksbury (101 Win Shares), Phil Plantier (46 Win Shares) and Joe Lefebvre (35 Win Shares).
Most Career Wins as a Mets Pitcher, among pitchers with zero losses as a Met
Don Florence: 3 Wins, 0 Losses
Bartolome Fortunato, Barry Jones, John Candelaria and Jim Bethke: 2 Wins, 0 Losses
No major leaguer born in New Hampshire has ever been inducted in the Hall of Fame. Best major leaguers born in New Hampshire:
--Arlie Latham, 221 Win Shares. Latham was one of the more popular players of the 19th century among fans. He was a prolific base stealer who hit for a good average and played third base for many years when that was a very tough position to play (lots of bunting, plus inferior gloves for fielding those wicked line drives). He was very famous as an entertainer, eccentric and overall kook on the field and off (he is credited for, among other innovations, starting the tradition of chattering encouragement to the pitcher from the infield).
--Red Rolfe, 162 Win Shares. Rolfe was the All-Star third basemen for the great, great Yankee teams of the late 1930s, late in Gehrig's career and early in DiMaggio's (Rolfe was 6 years younger than Gehrig and six years older than DiMaggio).
--Mike Flanagan, 158 Win Shares -- the popular Orioles pitcher and more recently an executive in the O's front office.
Among active MLB players born in New Hampshire the leading light is Chris Carpenter with 91 career Win Shares. Chad Paronto has 10 career Win Shares and Brian Wilson (not the Beach Boy) has 5 career Win Shares. Other New Hampshire natives who have played major league ball since 1945 and that current fans might remember are Bob Tewksbury (101 Win Shares), Phil Plantier (46 Win Shares) and Joe Lefebvre (35 Win Shares).
Sunday, January 6, 2008
With Intent
Designating a walk as an "intentional walk" is a somewhat odd aspect of baseball statistics. Most baseball statistics (setting aside fielding errors) are simply statements of facts. A single is an occurrence when the batter hits safely and makes it to first base; a walk is when the batter is awarded first base on four balls, etc. The intentional walk, however, requires a subjective determination by the official scorer of what was in the pitcher's mind -- whether or not he "intentionally" walked the better. There can certainly be gradations of "intentionality" that are not reflected in the simple statistical assignment of a walk as either "intentional" or not. A pitcher will sometimes pitch around a batter, intentionally avoiding giving the batter any pitch close to the strike zone or remotely hittable, without going through the traditional rigmarole of a standard "intentional" walk (catcher stands up, signals for a pitch way outside the strike zone, etc.). Intentional walk stats thus have to be taken with some grain of salt.
Nevertheless, the major leagues do record a sub-category of walks known as intentional walks, and there are some interesting patterns to be found there. Jose Reyes had 13 intentional walks (IBBs) in 2007 -- that's a very high number for a leadoff batter, and led the majors this past season for IBBs by a leadoff batter. By my calculations, Reyes is only the ninth NL player in the past 50 years to manage 13 or more IBBs in a season from the leadoff position in the batting order (note however that some of the other eight players -- such as Pete Rose and Lou Brock --did it multiple times in their careers). The frequency of Jose's IBBs in 2007 resulted in the Mets receiving more IBBs at the leadoff spot in the batting order than at any other spot in the order, an odd result indeed.
Generally speaking, in the NL, the 8th batter in the order gets the most IBBs, with the 5th place and cleanup hitters close behind. Over the past ten seasons, 8th spot batters have received about 24% of all IBBs in the National League, cleanup hitters about 21% of the IBBs and 5th place hitters about 18%. Leadoff hitters in the NL over the past ten seasons have only about 4% of the all the IBBs in the NL, ahead only of ninth place hitters at about 3% (these are all essentially all pinch hitters of course) and 1% for second spot hitters. Clearly a second spot hitter is rarely walked intentionally, given that the heart of the order is generally coming up immediately thereafter.
Although overall during the past ten seasons, the 8th spot has gotten the highest proportion of IBBs in the National League, in 2007 NL cleanup batters outdid 8th spot hitters in IBBs, with the cleanup guys taking about 26% of the IBBs and the 8th spot guys taking about 21.5%.
IBBs for pitchers are about as rare as ivory-billed woodpeckers. Brooks Kieschnick was pitching in a game in 2004 and received an IBB while at bat in that game -- but Kieschnick played more games in his career as a major league outfielder than as a pitcher. The last man before that to receive an intentional walk while in the game as a pitcher was Jim Kaat, all the way back in 1970, pitching for the Twins against the Brewers. Kaat was walked intentionally with one out and men on second and third, with the score tied in the top of the 11th inning. The Brewers were obviously trying to set up the possibilities of a double play or a force at home. It didn't work: Cesar Tovar singled and then Harmon Killebrew homered Kaat and Tovar in, and the Twins scored six runs in the inning.
Nevertheless, the major leagues do record a sub-category of walks known as intentional walks, and there are some interesting patterns to be found there. Jose Reyes had 13 intentional walks (IBBs) in 2007 -- that's a very high number for a leadoff batter, and led the majors this past season for IBBs by a leadoff batter. By my calculations, Reyes is only the ninth NL player in the past 50 years to manage 13 or more IBBs in a season from the leadoff position in the batting order (note however that some of the other eight players -- such as Pete Rose and Lou Brock --did it multiple times in their careers). The frequency of Jose's IBBs in 2007 resulted in the Mets receiving more IBBs at the leadoff spot in the batting order than at any other spot in the order, an odd result indeed.
Generally speaking, in the NL, the 8th batter in the order gets the most IBBs, with the 5th place and cleanup hitters close behind. Over the past ten seasons, 8th spot batters have received about 24% of all IBBs in the National League, cleanup hitters about 21% of the IBBs and 5th place hitters about 18%. Leadoff hitters in the NL over the past ten seasons have only about 4% of the all the IBBs in the NL, ahead only of ninth place hitters at about 3% (these are all essentially all pinch hitters of course) and 1% for second spot hitters. Clearly a second spot hitter is rarely walked intentionally, given that the heart of the order is generally coming up immediately thereafter.
Although overall during the past ten seasons, the 8th spot has gotten the highest proportion of IBBs in the National League, in 2007 NL cleanup batters outdid 8th spot hitters in IBBs, with the cleanup guys taking about 26% of the IBBs and the 8th spot guys taking about 21.5%.
IBBs for pitchers are about as rare as ivory-billed woodpeckers. Brooks Kieschnick was pitching in a game in 2004 and received an IBB while at bat in that game -- but Kieschnick played more games in his career as a major league outfielder than as a pitcher. The last man before that to receive an intentional walk while in the game as a pitcher was Jim Kaat, all the way back in 1970, pitching for the Twins against the Brewers. Kaat was walked intentionally with one out and men on second and third, with the score tied in the top of the 11th inning. The Brewers were obviously trying to set up the possibilities of a double play or a force at home. It didn't work: Cesar Tovar singled and then Harmon Killebrew homered Kaat and Tovar in, and the Twins scored six runs in the inning.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Field of Dreams State
The nation is focused on Iowa today. Not because it has been the birthplace of six Mets:
Jim McAndrew 38 Win Shares as a Met
Jack Hamilton 8 Win Shares as a Met
Lute Barnes 2 Win Shares as a Met
Ken Henderson 1 Win Share as a Met
Rich Folkers 0 Win Shares as a Met (29.3 IP in 1970, 6.44 ERA, for the Mets)
Kevin Tapani 0 Win Shares as a Met (only 7 IP for the Mets, but went on to a long career as a solidly average pitcher, mostly for the Twins and Cubs; 124 career Win Shares)
Hall of Famers born in Iowa:
Fred Clarke 400 Win Shares
Cap Anson 381 Win Shares
Bob Feller 292 Win Shares
Red Faber 292 Win Shares
Dave Bancroft 269 Win Shares
Dazzy Vance 241 Win Shares
The only active major leaguers who have had at least one career Win Share and are native Iowans:
Jon Lieber 109 Win Shares
Casey Blake 62 Win Shares
Jerry Hairston 57 Win Shares
Wes Obermueller 6 Win Shares
Jeff Clement 2 Win Shares
Joel Hanrahan 1 Win Share
Jim McAndrew 38 Win Shares as a Met
Jack Hamilton 8 Win Shares as a Met
Lute Barnes 2 Win Shares as a Met
Ken Henderson 1 Win Share as a Met
Rich Folkers 0 Win Shares as a Met (29.3 IP in 1970, 6.44 ERA, for the Mets)
Kevin Tapani 0 Win Shares as a Met (only 7 IP for the Mets, but went on to a long career as a solidly average pitcher, mostly for the Twins and Cubs; 124 career Win Shares)
Hall of Famers born in Iowa:
Fred Clarke 400 Win Shares
Cap Anson 381 Win Shares
Bob Feller 292 Win Shares
Red Faber 292 Win Shares
Dave Bancroft 269 Win Shares
Dazzy Vance 241 Win Shares
The only active major leaguers who have had at least one career Win Share and are native Iowans:
Jon Lieber 109 Win Shares
Casey Blake 62 Win Shares
Jerry Hairston 57 Win Shares
Wes Obermueller 6 Win Shares
Jeff Clement 2 Win Shares
Joel Hanrahan 1 Win Share
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Different Scales, Same Results
Slugging percentages and on base percentages are the two key figures to measuring a player's contribution at bat. They are however, measured on somewhat different scales -- for example in 2007, the NL's overall league slugging percentage was .423, while the overall league on base percentage was .334. That's one reason why adding them together in the statistic known as OPS (on base plus slugging) probably slightly overvalues hitters with high slugging percentages and slightly undervalues hitters with high on-base percentages (nevertheless, I still find OPS enormously useful, as it is really only slightly off as an estimate of a player's hitting value in most cases and it is really easy and convenient to use). In any event, the result of the two different scales is that it is relatively unusual for one player to have OBP and SLG figures that are very close to one another. Such a confluence only happens with players with a unusual combination of skills -- a relatively high capacity for getting on base given the player's power production.
The Mets' Luis Castillo is such a player of unusually close OBP and SLG figures; he is quite good at getting on base but not good at all on the power side. In 2007, Castillo had 199 at-bats for the Mets after joining the team from Minnesota at the end of July. His OBP in his time with the Mets was .371 and his SLG .372, a difference of only .001. Only four other players have had Mets seasons with at least 100 ABs in which their SLG and OPS were separated by no more than .001:
1974 Wayne Garrett, 522 ABs, .337 OBP and .337 SLG
1977 Doug Flynn, 282 ABs, .220 OBP and .220 SLG
1997 Rey Ordonez, 356 ABs, .255 OBP and .256 SLG
1999 Luis Lopez, 104 ABs. .308 OBP and .308 SLG
Flynn and Ordonez were so horrible on offense generally that the sort of hit rock bottom on both elements. Flynn's 1977 season for the Mets, after coming over in June from the Reds as part of the Tome Seaver trade, may have been the worst batting season in the history of the team, considering how many ABs he was given despite his futility. Ordonez' 1997 wasn't much better. In contrast, Wayne Garrett's 1974, like Castillo's 2007 with the Mets, wasn't bad from an offensive point of view, especially as we are talking about middle infielders here. Though Garrett's '74 OPS was much lower than Castillo's NL '07, Garrett was hitting in a much lower run scoring environment.
The Mets' Luis Castillo is such a player of unusually close OBP and SLG figures; he is quite good at getting on base but not good at all on the power side. In 2007, Castillo had 199 at-bats for the Mets after joining the team from Minnesota at the end of July. His OBP in his time with the Mets was .371 and his SLG .372, a difference of only .001. Only four other players have had Mets seasons with at least 100 ABs in which their SLG and OPS were separated by no more than .001:
1974 Wayne Garrett, 522 ABs, .337 OBP and .337 SLG
1977 Doug Flynn, 282 ABs, .220 OBP and .220 SLG
1997 Rey Ordonez, 356 ABs, .255 OBP and .256 SLG
1999 Luis Lopez, 104 ABs. .308 OBP and .308 SLG
Flynn and Ordonez were so horrible on offense generally that the sort of hit rock bottom on both elements. Flynn's 1977 season for the Mets, after coming over in June from the Reds as part of the Tome Seaver trade, may have been the worst batting season in the history of the team, considering how many ABs he was given despite his futility. Ordonez' 1997 wasn't much better. In contrast, Wayne Garrett's 1974, like Castillo's 2007 with the Mets, wasn't bad from an offensive point of view, especially as we are talking about middle infielders here. Though Garrett's '74 OPS was much lower than Castillo's NL '07, Garrett was hitting in a much lower run scoring environment.
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