Monday, September 3, 2007

Not Easy Being Green

After a good start this season, Shawn Green has gone back into the same hole he was in last year. Let's use OPS+ to look at Green's last seven seasons. OPS+, for those who don't know, is a stat developed by Sean Forman at http://www.baseball-reference.com/ in which 100 is equal to the year's league average OPS (for a player playing in home park with a league average balance between hitting and pitching). But if 100 represents a league average hitter (including middle infielders, catchers, pitchers in the NL, etc.), it is obviously below average for a corner outfielder. An average right fielder OPS+ in recent seasons has been more like 110 rather than 100. In any event, here are Shawn Green's OPS+ numbers for the last seven seasons, including 2007 in progress:

2001: 157
2002: 155
2003: 117
2004: 113
2005: 113
2006: 94
2007: 95

I checked to see if any other corner outfielders in history were regular starters (400 PAs or more) in their age 33 and 34 seasons and in both seasons had an OPS+ of below 100. There were three others besides Shawn:

George Foster (Mets, 1982-1983)
Dan Gladden (Twins 1991, Tigers 1992)
Garrett Anderson (Angels, 2005-2006)

Anderson has struggled with some injuries this season but his OPS+ is back to about average for his position at 113 (though not in the 130 range he managed in 2003 and 2004).

Gladden did not get over 100+ OPS at age 35, and that was his last season in MLB, though he played in Japan and won a Japanese league championship in 2004 to go with his two Twins rings. Gladden's career OPS+ was only 94 -- he never much of a hitter at all.

George Foster had an OPS+ of 150 or over in 5 of his previous six seasons when the Mets brought him over for the 1982 season. He proceeded to give the Mets two OPS+ years of 90 and 95 in 1982 and 1983. The next season at age 35 he come back a bit to 111, and at 36 was up to 122, but at age 37 in 1986 he was falling back below 100 and the Mets released him in August just as they were going on to a World Series win.

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